Monday, November 2, 2015

QE4 or NIRP policy announced next June

You heard it here first.

It gets us through 2016.

the Big Picture

12 comments:

Bicycle said...

Gotta seriously wonder at this point if Fed dropped the NIRP comments in the FOMC notes to re-ramp the indices because everyone tried to frontrun the raise.

As in, they were really going to raise but then chickened out because of the August dump.

This is getting totally out of hand.

T.Berry said...

less than 1% till ath's, was a bit off thinking not till next year. LOL

think we get one more quick 3-4% pullback before setting up for one heck of a santa rally this year. given rate hike in dec in priced in, the fed won't and the market will go ballistic to the upside to finish up '15. '16 should be a better year than '15.

Christian Gustafson said...

I want to see us tag that 2135 SPX level early Friday on NFP.

From there we can start our journey south.

We make it back to 1074 SPX by June FOMC and I'll buy a truckload of Q4 SPY 130 calls and spend the summer hiking.

T.Berry said...

at 2135 are you loaded up on puts?

Christian Gustafson said...

Sure, I'll pick some up.

scott said...

2135 is only possible in an alternate universe. lol

today was it. tomorrow many will feel TRAPPED. muhahaha!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&st=2015-07-07&en=today&id=p49052376099&a=408867296

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=W&st=2013-05-16&en=2015-11-03&id=p02168287864&a=429592078&listNum=4

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VXV:$VIX&p=D&st=2015-06-17&en=2015-11-03&id=p94754329494&a=429622149&listNum=4

T.Berry said...

i've not messed with options but may try to as some insurance on the upcoming pullback. thx & gl cg!

Christian Gustafson said...

Looks like Scott took the plunge. We will pray for him.

But I'll post a chart tonight proposing the 2135 peak on Friday, with the minor W3 coming on the 11/18 FOMC notes, and a low into December FOMC.

T.Berry said...

if you're in for the long haul and cost average, you won't get trapped :)

sorry but i feel 2135 will be cheap in 12 months. secular bull markets last a lot longer.

scott said...

Secular bull markets last a lot longer than what?

The shortest Secular bull has been less than 3 years and the longest 29 years. Secular bull years totaling 80 versus 52 for the bears; a 60:40 ratio. So the idea that "bull" markets have greater longevity is just a myth.

In any case this is NOT a secular bull market, but a cyclical bull within a secular bear. The masquerade is made more credulous due to overwhelming coordinated Central Bank legerdemain. Magical thinking is not a bull market and the slight of hand is at an end. DCA all you want, this is the end of your mythology of magic.

In fact, magical thinking within the modern video game of manipulated markets obviates any reality to the term "bull market"!

john said...

So would this be bringing gold under 1k$ ?

PaulLawn theFirst said...

Thanks for all your hard work.
The charts and posts are excellent!

Oaul