Thursday, September 24, 2015

How much of a bounce?

We have five waves down the /ES and SPX since the FOMC key reversal high.  The move has stayed relatively well-behaved in a tight channel.  A bounce is due, but how large of one?

SPX 09-24

16 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

If we're done selling off for now, the .618 retrace of the drop from 2020 SPX is around 1977.

George said...

FWIW, The /ES (hourly chart) stopped at the -23.6 extension of the 1963 to 1910 drop at 1898 after having hit a 50% retrace at 1936, so I would not be surprised to see it head back up here. Yellen will provide CNBC, et al, an explanation for whatever happens, no matter what it does, or what she says.

Bicycle said...

i'm going to will it into being...whatever it takes

Christian Gustafson said...

Thanks, George. And welcome.

BTW, if you have any recipes for tasty long pig or innovative techniques for man-traps and punji sticks, please do share.

Meanwhile Bicycle is focusing all his psychic energy on lifting the tape, like a psionic attack from a mind-flayer.

If the Bear really is coming, a good bounce would be great.

Christian Gustafson said...

Mind-flayer reference material.

Bicycle said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzKMhOAly_Y

Christian Gustafson said...

Bicycle -- since the lows this morning.

A up, a B-wave triangle over the last hour of trading, C up tomorrow?

Bicycle said...

Sure, that fits, especially with Janet speaking soon. Man, if we can get a hyper-ramp tomorrow....

The caution is that a number of individual names I watch (all associated with China) broke significant resistance today and DID NOT regain in that ramp into the close... but those could simply be early warning signs.

Now check out The Panic In Peoria...

Bicycle said...

and lest ye forget... the Supermoon Blood Red Moon Total Lunar Eclipse is this weekend. Not to be seen again until 2033, long after the conclusion of the robot drone wars

Christian Gustafson said...

Is Rock River Arms hiring?

Bryan Franco said...

CG- I don't know anything about guns. Perhaps I better learn. What do you recommend? Just want to protect my daughter from all that is evil. Would love for her to embrace Ronda Rousey as a role model.

Christian Gustafson said...

Can we fill the gap @ 1990 SPX today?

Such a move would clear the field of bears.

Bryan, I have a CCW issued by the State of Washington, but I'm not your source for real firearms info. I suppose you need a rifle, as well as a pistol so that you can get to your rifle. Then you can be an armed free citizen of the republic like me and the Swiss.

Go to a range that lets you try out a variety of guns, find something you like, lock it up securely. There are also mobs of tasty deer in your neck of the woods; the top predator is either you or the hood of your neighbor's Buick.

Bicycle said...

Although I would love for us to complete the triangle in time for the lunar eclipse... I think it will take a few more days.... DJIA 16700-750, no higher.

Bicycle said...

BBRY about to set a new 52 wk low lol

Steven said...

Hello, would you care to update your post "Does 1987 have any lessons for today?"? As it looks to be following your A-B-C moves pretty closely, and we're getting close to the interim top before your big break down.
Would love to hear an update on that one.

Thanks

Christian Gustafson said...

Yeah, Steven, good idea, I'll do that.

If these legs are ABCs, then we get caught off-guard waiting for 5th wave lows below 1867 and unpleasant things like that. By the time we figure that out -- whoa -- there's our next C wave down.

Bicycle, I don't know if it's sporting to make fun of BBRY any more. How much of the S&P 500 will suffer a similar fate?