Monday, August 31, 2015

If you need a bearish count on SPX

This works.  It even includes a "leading diagonal", which has been an elusive unicorn in the tape for years.

Either SPX or the UVXY volatility ETF has got to break right here, right now.

The bearish count needs a new low this week, or else the recent drop was just some degree of a "wave 4", yet again, we know the drill, etc etc.

SPX proposed bear channel

7 comments:

Reverend Nihilism said...

Are we going to retrace the previous 6 month decline in oil, in a matter of two/three weeks!? It's starting to look that way.

Bryan Franco said...

Oil looks to have made a semi spiky low on the monthly. Perhaps it consolidates over the next several months with renewed upside late this year or early next. I could see commodities having discounted most of the deflationary bust. Thus, I think they should outperform going forward.

Christian Gustafson said...

Crude oil is a race between the collapse of the USA alt oil industry (doomed) and the entire Chinese command economy (also doomed).

Which can decline faster? Our production of unneeded oil, or China's wasting of it?

UVXY and VXX kept the bear fires burning today for new lows this week. VIX futures look like a massive ascending triangle / bull flag.

Bicycle said...

If we want to take the bull case on oil, say a US shale full stop and ISIS marches on Riyadh, WTI currently targets $175.

Team Winning said...

BICYCLE WILL NEED A NEW 'BICYCLE' WITH WTI AT $175.....U SHOULD GO WORK FOR GOLDMAN SACHS.......LOLOLO!!!!!

FYI....SAUDI ARABIA SPENDS MORE ON DEFENSE THAN EVERYONE IN THE WORLD....EXCEPT US AND CHINA!!!!

CG, UVXY IS GOING TO BREAK....DOWN....SOON!!!!!

SPX UP TO NEW HIGHS....AT LEAST INTO SEPTEMBER FOMC MEETING!!!

Christian Gustafson said...

Mr. Winning, VIX is finally breaking out of its ascending tri tonight.

There is plenty of time to get down to 1820 SPX this week. Then we can wave 2 retrace into September FOMC and the rate hike.

Depriv said...

Yep. The chart I'm using is quite similar till the point of the green '5'.
But mine has more variations on it:
- that green '5' gets the '1' as on yours: then the left shoulder (second wave) is a bit higher, just for simmetry - and because the bull is far from dead at this point
- that green '5' gets a label of 'C', and then the target is far above 2200

And to mess up the things, both variation can be altered with an additional fifth (in this case the green '5' would be the end of the third wave only).