We've moved sideways through a couple of support trendlines that have now been slowly, gradually stressed and broken, but the market is not yet ready to head down.
The daily SPX upper Bollinger, the lower daily VIX Bollinger, are untouched and probably unlikely to be tagged into the close today. So far, these technical indicators have served us well to know that we have not yet reached the end of this.
The two most likely events that can roach the market and bring the return of the bear would be a suprprise hard default and exit from the Eurozone of Greece, and a 50 bps or better rate hike at the mid-June FOMC meeting. Assuming that the PTB can keep Greece on ice, then let's consider that the equity market hangs in here until the FOMC, all-but-forcing Janet Yellen to declare victory and discontinue ZIRP (for now). ZIRP will certainly return, but under much more desperate and frightening circumstances.
Here's a proposed ending-diagonal scenario that completes into the June Fed meeting, at the 2145 level on the S&P 500.
|ending-diagonal into June FOMC edition|
EDIT: after looking at the DJIA for corresponding waves, I added a second count in red that would have us finish up an ending-diagonal after the first week of June, presumably on Greek troubles.