Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Triangles in commodities

Started watching this a while back.  The question is, when will this chart:

Lumber weekly

Look like this one:

Copper weekly

Or even (OMG) this one:

Crude oil weekly

Because everyone knows what lumber means.  And, yes, it tends to lag the others.

The problem is that the great suburban tract chipboard McMansion is the hard asset underlying the great American debt ponzi!  That and your future!  And both are worthless!

SPX likely finished up wave 3 up today from the 1980 low.  We've got at least two more weeks for 4 and 5, during which that top Bollinger will come back in (2142+ today).

No worries.  Go look for books at Value Village.

27 comments:

Reverend Nihilism said...

http://fintrend.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Moore_Inflation_Predictor_Jan_15.jpg


Phat Repat said...

CG
You mean it's not as they describe in Boob Tube land? Nice charts and overview.

Wow, did the Grexit happen or something? FXE fell out of bed and the USD is en fuego. Shouldn't last but my APR 17 117 call options are probably not gonna rise from the ashes. ;-)

Short term SPX wanting to pull back but no indication of how deep. Following CG's view, could be fairly shallow. I would need to see a move below 2092.46 to short; not likely at this point but late afternoon will show the way.

Saw a pundit on Yahoo mention the market wants rates to rise. That's some funny stuff; any appreciable rise and you can kiss it goodbye. Not gonna happen, IMHO.

Christian Gustafson said...

UVXY certainly not registering any real fear out there this morning.

Note that the daily SPX Bollinger is flattening and topping out again at 2144.

This sideways W4 movement will bring it in and allow the W5 to take its best shot at it. And that's important to our thesis here.

Bicycle said...

Holy crap dude. Look at this.

I am officially trembling in my sneakers.

Bicycle said...

Gas prices are still going to go much lower...

Reverend Nihilism said...

Screamer.

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=w



Phat Repat said...

We are surely living in interesting times.

IYT (Transports) and IYR (Real Estate) continue to look ugly. Chance of rate hike? Not sure market would even put up with a token hike at this point.

Only question now, when will helicopter drops commence? Smoke'em if you got'em. ;-)

Phat Repat said...

Interesting observation of NYSE Margin Debt and the SPX.

Bicycle said...

Another triangle:

Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos & Light Trucks, Percent Change from Year Ago

Bicycle said...

DJIA top BB curling down and descending at 18409 this morning

Lower BB also sharply ascending--we're tightening up very quickly

Christian Gustafson said...

Correct. SPX top daily Bollinger also topped and coming back in.

Look at a 1Y daily SPX chart with Bollingers and you can see this pattern. I love the setup here.

I'm not a McHugh salesman, but he is starting to get excited again in his newsletter, much like he was last October. He is worth listening to, IMO.

Nice chart, Bicycle.

Phat Repat said...

Okay, decided to straddle prior calls since FXE, FXC (75 P), and TLT (122 P) aren't acting quite right. Also took a straddle on GLD (109 P/121 C) for same expiration as others (17 APR).

That being said, yeah, those charts Bicycle puts up are flat out scary.

I'm looking to play some long futures if, over the next hour, we can get back down around 2104 to close the gap from this AM. Otherwise, I will sit and wait for an entry per the 'system'. To avoid a bearish close, need to be above 2106.40.

Bicycle said...

Here is the current snow pack data for the California Sierras.

The collapse of this state is truly going to be a sight to behold.

T.Berry said...

woah, mkt seem to like ecb qe program. wasn't expecting such a huge move on day one but then again not sure how much their qe program will have on our stocks. ours didn't appear to have

Phat Repat said...

Well, well, well. Very interesting... :-)

And the system says, "in limbo." I would need to see a move below 2093.55 to enter short or a move above 2128.32 to enter long. Odds are towards short but that gives a target of 1988.60 (clustered and hard for me to believe). To avoid a bearish setup, need to close above 2109.04. The good news, once this move is completed and assuming the bull resumes, I have a target of 2214.33. ;-) Hmmmm... Tick Tock.

T.Berry said...

put half cash left in this am when s&p hit 2100. saved remaining in case of a drop further.

liking those 2214 clusters phat :)

Bicycle said...

Hey CG, it's looking pretty good for your theory that we need to pierce the top BB to put in a top...

Phat Repat said...

Well, there's some nice action for ya.

I'm not short at the moment since, using current numbers, need to have a close below 2090.24. I am seeing quite the ugly candle on my chart. However, given all the gaps, any downdraft should be short lived (though I won't go against the system and time tells all). ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

Yah, market's in the doldrums, could seriously last the entire month, with us going out at the highs into the end of Q1.

The upper trendline for that is 2150 SPX at that time.

Look at how little UVXY stirred on the drop this morning.

I'm planning a 50mi loop hike in the Olympic Mountains for this weekend, into the heart of the wilderness.

Toting my best ice axe for this one.

Bicycle said...

The value of manufacturing inventories is poised to totally collapse, and imminently so...

Phat Repat said...

Boring. System still in limbo with Long/Short dictated by 2120.73/2086.07 (confirmed EOD; but changes with fresh data).

So, decided to take offsetting positions and really have nothing to do but watch limits now to take action (1985/2150). But, 3.6% with very low risk. ;-)

Bicycle paints a very scary picture; but I am secure with my hopium blanket.

Bicycle said...

We'll all be thankful for well, just any kind of warm blanket, soon. Because everywhere you look, there are blaring signals of an impending global economic collapse. Like here:

Volume of Trade of Goods and Services for the World, Percent Change from Year Ago, Descending Broadening Triangle.

Phat Repat said...

As the saying goes, "when goods don't cross borders, armies will."

Early action yields 2086.97 as trigger for short position. 2121.63 needed for long. Everything else looking good.

Bicycle said...

Lol I just trolled LaVorg on twitter with my YoY auto sales chart

Bicycle said...

....aaaaaand AAPL is now a Dow component. Lol this is gonna be good

T.Berry said...

aapl wasting no time flexing its muscles. will it be enough to lift dow green by the close though??? too bad they didn't add it before february.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yawn again.

This could loiter all day at this level.

No worries.