We want to see:
1. Penetration of the upper daily Bollinger Band on the S&P 500.
2. Penetration of the lower Bollinger Bands and/or new all-time capitulation lows in volatility and bearish ETFs like UVXY, TVIX, SDS, TZA, FAZ, etc. Bullish wedge patterns are helpful on these, too.
3. A larger "terminal" pattern like an ending-diagonal triangle. Maybe even two of them, nested (yes, this).
4. Decreasing volume towards the top, as well as any other bearish divergences that rear their ugly head, like a lower high on the McClellan or NYSE A/D line.
5. An intraday-reversal candle on manic panic volume, if possible.
6. Other correspondences to past tops, flattening Bollingers, leveling moving-averages, etc.
7. Unusual astrological events make a nice touch and are always welcome.
8. *your favorite pet indicator here*
I stood by while many bears who should know better, claimed and charted that the dive from the 2093.55 SPX high in late December 2014, was "the" top and an impulsive wave 1 down. It took some time for the waves to sort themselves out, but I was proven right, that we needed to reach that Bollinger Band, and that it was truly foolish to think that a six-day decline would be "corrected" by a full month of chart oscillation.
2093.55 SPX fell, and the bears looked like jerks again. Well, yeah.
But the daily upper Bollinger on the SPX took off again this week, exploding up into the mid-2120s, suggesting that it, too, needs to settle down to allow us to reach it and setup the overbought conditions we need.
So ... in a nutshell, we probably need more time.
The good news is, the really good news, IMO, is that the tape since the 1980 SPX low looks like a plausible triplet, a possible ABC leg for wave 1 of an ending diagonal. This is very encouraging for us true perma-bears, who have managed to survive all this time eating grass and winter-kill carrion, but surviving nonetheless. We will make it to the waterfall season of the markets when the salmon are running in numbers once again.
Here's the proposed ending-diagonal, in daily candles: