Thursday, January 22, 2015

Charts 01-22: New highs next week

We touched the far wall of a channel on my chart, so I could see us idle and trade sideways Friday and most of Monday, before setting up for a new high above the late December.



We might not make 2100 SPX, however, because the upper Bollinger is -- finally -- coming in fast to meet us.  We could pierce it by a few points, of course.

Here's the channel for the ending-diagonal.  I think the tell on this was the triangle wave for "b of 1" from a couple of days ago.  These are triplets -- we're nearing exhaustion.

SPX 01-22


The larger picture for Spring 2015, including an outright crash off the rate hike at the April FOMC.  Who ever thought 50 basis points could be so cruel?

SPX 01-22 6M

Robinhood.com account is now funded and ready to go!  My dry powder ($100) will sit tight with them for a few days, while I wait for an entry that makes sense, and they mine it for micro-pennies to keep the lights on.

25 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Heh, just noticed that the chart for next week is showing Saturday as a trading day.

I have the label "FOMC" at the right time, on Wednesday. OX charts has the Y-axis off a day.

Bryan Franco said...

CG - take another look at your second chart. I see the Midwest including, Michigan, the Great Lakes, and Ontario. Perhaps the border of northern Illinois, and Wisconsin too. Do we also have the confluence of some rivers around the St Louis area? Maybe this is what the U.S. looked like in the Mesozoic era. And perhaps that is where we are headed?

Christian Gustafson said...

Btw, we closed right on the channel lower bound. Wave (iv) is in.

benjoyce said...

does anyone know when McHugh's next phi mate date is? My newsletter just ran out. I emailed him but no answer yet.

Christian Gustafson said...

Here is the response Sunday night to the Greek elections on /ES.

This needs to recover, piss off any remaining living bears, put in new highs, and only then die.

Phat Repat said...

Yeah, I'm in at 2026. Let's see if that holds. Given the reaction to essentially a non-event, or what should be, for US markets. Besides that, isn't this a FED week? ;-)

Bicycle said...

Or it doesn't recover, and it's a continuation of the last wave in our pennant that finally finishes off wave 4 in the rising wedge.

On the Dow, the lower bollinger, blue 5, and red 4 are all going to converge on the same point.

Christian Gustafson said...

If you are right, Mr. Bicycle, then that's another low I get to buy, ok. Tonight's gap will be filled.

But you may want to label those sub-waves of your 4 as abcde, or I'll be forced to file a protest with the Elliotticians Guild. That's not to code!

Christian Gustafson said...

This isn't 'Nam -- there are rules!

Bicycle said...

Ok, ok, I'll clean 'er up with the next chart.

Christian Gustafson said...

We found support during RTH this morning right at the .382 retrace of the move from 2004-2064 SPX.

Labeling the drop since 2064 Thursday a wave (iv) until we have reason to believe otherwise.

UVXY looks absolutely unimpressed with the red candles on the indices, almost reluctantly rallying a few dimes upward.

Also note that the important top daily Bollinger Band on the SPX has come in considerably at 2095, and is pointing downward.

Calls? 2098 SPX on Tuesday, then a reversal?

Phat Repat said...

My target of 2110.99 is still a possibility though my current positions have me exiting at about 2091 to achieve max profitability; without further action.

So, 2091 for me and then I will enter defensive positions targeting 4% for next month.

Christian Gustafson said...

The upper TL is right at 2111 into zero-hour of FOMC this week, so your sketch target is not unreasonable. This would push through the Bollinger pretty well, then it would push back.

Bicycle said...

Blue e is now on its way to completion, and we are now finally about to put in red 4. Lots of Dow components getting schmeissed this morning. CAT is one of them.

Christian Gustafson said...

Can't say that for sure, Bicycle.

This could have been a deep minor (iv) wave that has now overlapped wave the wave (i) that ran from 1988 to 2028.

(v) up running into Friday? Or your E?

FOMC tomorrow, and a minor Bradley turn over the weekend. My outlook remains unchanged ... I still want to see that touch of the top BB daily SPX.

Christian Gustafson said...

Agree, though, Bicycle, that the DJIA argues for your tri better than the SPX.

Big names taking on water as the strong USD eats their paper profits.

Phat Repat said...

Whew! Insulated but a heat shield is starting to fail as the warmth is noticeable. ;-)

Will take a look this afternoon, run the numbers, and see if action is necessary. Always nice to have insurance.

Bicycle said...

Based on the action this morning on the Dow, I'd guess we'll finish putting in 4 on the rising wedge today, and finish the pennant. Hell, we're basically there as I write this. FOMC will probably contain some language about delaying rate increases into 2016 which will carry us up into a 5th that may very well fail at the top BB. I find it hard to believe that we'll spike so hard on FOMC that our 5th will be done by the Bradley turn this weekend, but, maybe... I'd personally like to see the 5th drag on thru February before we roll over and crash, but the top BB is already down at 18k on the Dow. It shouldn't be hard to run up and punch it one more time.

Frankly, I'm kicking myself for not placing some large long-term shorts at blue b on the pennant. But we should get one more chance, if we can spike hard soon and make it up to the top BB.

Bicycle said...

Yeah, I really only look at the Dow anymore. No one else really does, so why not me. And there are sometimes some key differences there that can provide direction for the broader market.

By the way, I am not looking forward to what is happening to CAT. They recently built a palace of a museum and visitor center down by the Illinois River that my kids love. There's a huge mining truck in there and the kids can climb all over bulldozers and trucks. The museum has a nice planetarium with a Zeiss projector (the only way to go for star shows--digital projection sucks), and there's even an aquarium with fish from the river in it. No one every puts catfish and bass and sunfish on display in an aquarium in the midwest. It's cool--no tropical bull shit.

Christian Gustafson said...

Now it only needs a supersized carp or sucker you can walk inside like the heart at the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago. But I actually think carp grow that large in the Rock River, that you could walk around inside of one.

I forgot to tell you, Bicycle, a long time ago I had an apartment for 2 years at 55th & Cornell, right above Morry's, 2 blocks away from MSI.

Went all the time. Walked by it at the very least. Walked to Gary, IN, a few times, too.

Gott im Himmel! The top SPX daily BB is now at 2089.

Bicycle said...

My daughter would not let us leave the submarine exhibit a couple of weekends ago. I was trying to move things along, so we could make it to the coal mine, but she wanted to watch every one of the WWII videos to completion. "No daddy, I want to see what the real people did."

Bicycle said...

4 is definitely in now after the turn, and the only question remaining is how high does 5 go? Does it stop and crash at the top BB, or do we go all the way to 18,500???

T.Berry said...

like 18500 (but i'm expecting we hit 20,000 later in '15) :)

think maybe all the selling so far this year is about over. now lets see that 2,100

Phat Repat said...

Okay, got a little warm but positions in the SPX survived for another day. My ideal exit moved to 2090 and I have a stop at 2017 (confirmed).

Christian Gustafson said...

Took a little nibble on some (this) weekly SPY 207 calls.