Monday, November 3, 2014

The danger is real

All we have to do is pick up where we left off on the selling ... and we will live in a whole new world by January FOMC next year.

It has the potential to move much faster than anyone but the most irresponsible, glue-sniffing Austrian bears like me can imagine.

SPX 11/03

BTW, I love Hussman's ballsy call for 85 on USDJPY.  Now that is the contrarian outlook of the hour.  

17 comments:

Phat Repat said...

Yep, that is some darn contrarian stuff. And, this whipping around we are seeing is getting to be downright goofy. Bonds, Currency, Equities; things are getting whack. Tick Tock.

Here's what I'm seeing:
Take notice below 1993.57 and Sell below 1989.01 with T1 1899.35 (Values and Target adjusts daily since no cluster).

Christian Gustafson said...

Is this a completed 5-wave impulse down on JPY?

What about on the JPY weekly?

If everyone is all loaded up short on the Yen, what happens if it ticks up a little? Maybe 120 isn't in the bag after all. *BOOM*

Fetal Position said...

2040 is beggining to look like a real possibility. The DJT is soaring this morning.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hard to say, Fetal.

You could argue that the DJT is completing a 5th wave it began on 10/30.

The S&P 500 may have completed its own 5th wave yesterday.

If wave (i) of the S&P 500's w5 took us from 1820 to 1869 -- that's 49 handles.

Now look at the move from 1974 SPX to 2024 -- 50 handles -- for a plausible (v) of 5.

Bicycle said...

Can we just finish up this channel and blow up already?

Fetal Position said...

I noticed the BPSPX ticked down for the first time since the upward correction began.

Christian Gustafson said...

Actually, Bicycle, if we're going with the 2007 parallel here, we missed the trendline on the final thrust up.

Phat Repat said...

Okay, shaping up nicely but no signal for entry; yet.

Numbers for me are:

Take notice below 2000.59 then
Sell below 1988.23 with Stop 2012.11 and T1 1899.35 (cluster finally forming).

Christian Gustafson said...

Maybe Mr. Bullard can roll his self-directed 401(k) into TNA today, and issue a press release.

Bicycle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bicycle said...

I don't buy it. We are barely off the highs.

If this is the end of a Grand Supercycle wave, we need to see some truly Station Nightclub Fire style panic off of the top.

Phat Repat said...

It's either going to be a sell-the-news event (after election) or a blame it on the Repubs event who are seen as fiscally conservative (I know, BS) if they win.

No action for me, up or down at this time. And now I will go to sleep at which time all the fireworks will go off (lucky for you). Though I have set alarms. ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

I mentioned the 49-handle wave 1 of this, the spike low from 1820 SPX back to 1869.

If 2001 holds here as a low, another 49 handles gets us to 2050 SPX, where there are trendlines etc around the 11/20 "major" Bradley turn (fwiw).

Christian Gustafson said...

Tonight I'll chart up what a terminal pattern like an ending-diagonal triangle might look like into the 11/20 Bradley / November opex window.

As for me, I pulled the trigger and dumped both my UVXY and the SPY puts I picked up yesterday, both nicely green.

I'd love to get UVXY again on a buy off her lower BB.

Bicycle said...

Zoom in on our boring ass channel.

If we top and dump from this, what a lame way to end it all.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yahoo has really improved their standardized option UI.

The columns are now sortable, so if you visit the link above and click on Open Interest, you can see all of the popular SPY puts.

368K SPY 150 puts? They must belong to some nut on this blog.

But you can see that, even with the VIX where is it, there are plenty of November SPY months for the market to eat until opex.

Phat Repat said...

Well, thank goodness for automated trading. :-) No position taken and here is what things are looking like:

Buy above 2020.21 with Stop 1996.28 and T1 2090.73 (non-cluster). Very interesting cluster forming around 2123.24. Hmmm...

Sell below 1987.15 with Stop 2011.05 with T1 1899.35 (minor cluster).

Tick Tock.