Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Charts 10-15: To the bear trendline

Updated count.

If it's on, we are finished trading above 1900 SPX in this monetary regime.

SPX 10-15 a.m.

Added: the "eat everyone's theta" count:

wave 4 eater of option theta


Bicycle said...

Abosolutely deadly serious problems on the Dow right now.

Plus we appear to be getting that bond market dislocation event, or at least the beginnings of it this week, as speculated last week.

NOT good. And WTI is *just* hovering above 80.

Christian Gustafson said...

Broke through the lower "bear" trendline.

Line-in-the-sand levels now, unless this thing is going to get out of hand (it's not yet).

T.Berry said...

might be best/last good buying opp. used up my 40% cash at open. we shall see

Christian Gustafson said...


If that's it for wave 3 here, .382 of the central move (green iii) gets us back up to ~1873 SPX into opex.

Then we still have green (v) left in the series, corresponding to the 58 leg wave from 1970 to 1912 SPX.

Arguing that green (v) is early next week, takes us express to 1814 SPX, in about a day.

Phat Repat said...

Aside from us recognizing the gravity of the situation, you can bet the PTB do as well. Though I have to live and die by my system, and won't enter now until I receive a bull signal, it is hard to believe this is IT.

Numbers at this point:

Buy above 1907.39 with Stop 1884.96

Sell below 1876.34 with Stop 1898.74

The lowest number I have for this downfall, at this point, is 1834.70.

Cue the PPT (already in action).

Christian Gustafson said...

Added a count, the theta-eater count. The pause that refreshes!

Bicycle said...

The level one (-7%) and level 2 (-13%) NYSE circuit breakers are only good for 2 more hours. After the next 2 hours we only have the Level 3 (-20%) circuit breaker in effect

Christian Gustafson said...

If you're counting this at home, 1820 is an interesting level for us. Of course, it and especially 1814 underneath it, are must-holds.

W1 was arguably 93 pts: 2019 -> 1926.

If W3 started at 1970 SPX, it reaches a pefect 1.618x extension of W1 at 1920, 150 handles of wave 3 decline.

Phat Repat said...

Wow, just wow!

Numbers at the end of the day are:

Buy above 1893.96 with Stop 1871.60 T1 1933.18

Sell below 1863.05 with Stop 1885.37 T1 1817.27

These numbers will change slightly at the open but again, wow. ;-)