Thursday, August 7, 2014

Roy knows


How about 1868 SPX tomorrow @ the close?

the Roy Orbison

18 comments:

Permabear Doomster said...

The big O'.... contrarian signal?

--
I should sleep. urghhh

Christian Gustafson said...

Look @ JPY tonight ...

Bicycle said...

overnight dump then ramp during trading hours... we've seen it so many times before. Bulls gotta ramp it soon...

...at least I hope this starts to look a little more orderly.

Between Putin playing Hitler, ISIS and Ebola beginning to run amok in the 8th largest petro exporter in the world things are starting to get out of hand. Ebola doesn't even have to leap the ocean to completely fuck us up. It only needs to take hold in Nigeria and maybe even make the leap to Saudi as has already happened in one case. We'd be done.

It could get Station Nightclub Fire bad in short order.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey, Bicycle!

I have us bottoming tomorrow into the Full Moon and then rallying back to 1905 over August opex week.

That meagre of a bounce will NOT pay well with calls. The IV on them will make them very pricy at the low, and they will bleed this away if most of next week is a gentle sideways-up.

Real PANIC mini-crash to 1740 SPX area the week after that, ending with Yellen's dovish comments at Jackson Hole on that Friday.

THAT's the dip I plan on buying, it will be 110 handles SPX in about a week.

Real bad shit after that. But we have milestones to make along the way before we can worry about it.

Permabear Doomster said...

re: Real PANIC mini-crash to 1740 SPX area the week after that, ending with Yellen's dovish comments at Jackson Hole on that Friday.

...and what do you make of today?

In many ways I wish I was wrong. it'd be great to have a clear top clarified, via a hit of the lower weekly bol... 1810s...

But now we're back in the 1930s..and 50/60s are due next week.

Sure, we could rollover from there.... but what if the Yellen inspires the market at the hole?

We'll be looking at the 2030/50 zone by late Sept. Maybe a top...then.
-

Regardless, have a good weekend.

Bryan Franco said...

... and don't forget, as always, the ECB "stands ready to act", reiterated almost weekly now. The market will one day become numb to their words, or something will force them to temporarily abandon negative rates, but not before we tag 1950 in the form of a double zigzag.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey Doomie --

Urk! You were right on that futures dive overnight. We were so oversold here that the Tweets re Russia were enough to stabilize us for now. The McClellan Summation index is getting to a very dangerous level now, which may make things interesting after opex.

11 days down, 6 back up, starting with today, through August opex.

Still maintaining the top is in, unless we can break back over the line we rejected at 1942 SPX this week. That is the old rally channel -- it looks like we need another try at it, SPX 1950s this Friday. OK.

I actually did much better trading in and out of UVXY than with SPY puts this week. UVXY should pull back to maybe the $29 level into the retrace this week.

I'll be out in the Olympic Mountains with my daughters all next week. I promised that they would see their first wild bear this year, so I am trying to make that happen. I should be back Thursday night, hopefully poised to put on an aggressive short for the overhead channel retest sometime on Friday.

On the 3PDH, I am wondering now if the 1814 SPX level is point "22" instead of 1737 SPX. It makes a nice target for a panic dive the week after opex -- this week's tape projects nicely to it.

GLTA! and cheers!

pb said...

Your thoughts Christian??
Just a bounce or retest of the
highs???

Permabear Doomster said...

I do love the analogies, and they DO Have a lot of merit in being used sometimes, but really...

price structure is everything...

Primary trend is up...and we're seeing the same market mood as we saw across the spring.
-

Maybe sp'2030/50 zone will be enough to capitulate enough of the remaining bears.

pb said...

I didn't know your name was Christian - Permabear? I wasn't asking you

Permabear Doomster said...

Keep staring at the sun.

pb said...

Everyone knows your slant on the
market Perma Bull - I was asking Christians his take on the recent movement.

T.Berry said...

s&p still on tract for 2,200 and possibly 2,450 next year. nothing changed. market still in strong uptrend. will continue adding on dips. don't see any reason market will change trend anytime soon. get ready 2000 right around the corner maybe by month end?

T.Berry said...

pb- continue looking for reasons not to be long. still don't see any.

pb said...

Thanks for tip there Warren Buffet
(T.Berry)

T.Berry said...

lol PB, not quite! :) standing by my july call, s&p won't go below 1900. once 2k hits, could be fast move to 2100., feels like multi year secular bull is upon us.

fed will continue pushing rate hikes back and back...just like the first in 2012 never happened. they will keep the bull well fed. many more tops will go down

pb said...

Yup - you are completely right T Berry / S$P 5000 is around the corner - No risk in this Market.

The Fed is competent and we have no worries ahhh Cisco just laid off 6,000 employees (very high skilled and high paying jobs) along with Microsoft letting 18,000 go (high skilled / high paying jobs). Yup this economy is booming and we have the Dream Team
in charge of the Federal reserve. What can go wrong.

Bicycle said...

July 31, 2014 was the Beginning of the End.

We passed the lower bull trendline from March 2009. It is unbelievably significant.

The current move is a kissback of that trend, which could also turn into a last overthrow of the 15-year Dow megaphone. This move, wherever it ends, finishes off the 2009-present bull market for good.

Make your final preparations now, whatever those may be. This imminently presages at least a -70% bear.

--
C'mon, baby
Let's do it right
Time to dance
In the magic light
Of the desert moon
--