Friday, August 1, 2014

Charts 08-01: The big test for next week

The McClellan is now in really-really oversold territory, so we should see a bounce soon.  Remember, we were putting up negative readings on the MCO while we were doing the all-time nominal SPX highs, an important divergence.

The big test for next week, I think, is whether we can get back over the 1955-1957 level -- the orange line on my chart.  This line marks where the market crosses over into ludicrous speed.

SPX 07-31

If we reject off this level, then we get a head-and-shoulders formation with a target of around the 200 DMA in the 2nd week of August.  We should bounce off that, until we reject off the next bit of overhead resistance.

4 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

And there are our morning margin calls from yesterday's waterfall.

If the new lower-low (1923 SPX) holds, now the 1957 level also has the virtue of being a 50% retrace of the move off the top.

Christian Gustafson said...

With the very lower-low this morning, we might not even make it back to the orange line next week.

First we have to get over the pink trendline. Failing that test would be very very bad.

Permabear Doomster said...

Failing that test would be very very bad.
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Or good...depending on trading perspective :)
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Seems a fair few are agreed...if market can't break back above 1960/70s..then its done..and a much larger down wave is now underway.

I see downside targets of the low 1700s from a fair few people.

I would hope we can at least break lower than that...

Phat Repat said...

Those are some incredibly low targets. Kinda hard to believe. But the market is all knowing and fortunately money is made on both sides. Like your updates so keep them coming. :-)