Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Charts 05-28: 3PDH adjustments, final low 550 SPX

Readers of this blog will recognize this as the moment where I begin to adjust a large proposed pattern, while we really haven't yet confirmed any part of it -- in this case the point #23 high we are looking for next week.

So far, so good on the bond call, though, yes?  I am very pleased to see the "short bonds" crowd getting crucified lately.  HAHA.

The core waves of the big move to point 28, completing the 3PDH pattern, get underway right after Christmas.  A very scary zig-zag gives us a proposed final low of 550 SPX in spring of 2016.

SPX 05-28
Tick tick tick tick tick ....

VIX 05-28
SPX 05-28 5Y
SPX 05-28 10Y

5 comments:

Bicycle said...

The sharp downward revision (or more accurately, total collapse) in Monterey shale formation estimates a week ago, almost certainly called the top for the California economy in this cycle.

By proxy, it would seem to be early confirmation of nearing tops in all US indices.

That formation would never have been developed, of course; the political climate of the state would not support it, not to mention the proximity to the San Andreas fault as well as California's previously dwindling accessibility to water resource.

However, no longer can official GDP estimates can be projected on the basis of full development of the Monterey shale. More importantly, lending can not be extended based on the previous full projection.

The Age of Conservation is nigh. The 96% writedown of Monterey is a 64% writedown of total shale resource in the US. One must also prudently write down shale estimates globally--this will deal the final blow to Europe, clearing the way for Vlad's advance.

It will not go un-noticed by the Federal Reserve. Since we can assume they were aware of this data far prior to its release, it leads one to believe that the timing of QE taper this year is not coincidental.

Based on their recent language, rate increases can be expected in 2015. The potential is there for an earlier surprise--if the shale miracle is finally unraveling, they will have the data and begin acting 3-6 months in advance of the rest of us knowing about any further formation writedowns.

Christian Gustafson said...

Scariest headline of 2014, IMO.

Bicycle said...

We're not going to make it to 2200.

We'll have a top in on the S&P by the end of the summer.

T.Berry said...

agree no 2200 this year. max maybe 2150. but 2200-2400 in 2015. fed & wall street are too powerful. we'll continue to see low volume meltups so strong the vix is now rising-hahha. still target 9 handle and maybe even lower.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger! Hypertiger!