Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Charts 05-20: Three Peaks and a Domed House

Presented with a final high (point #23) at SPX 1950 on the July 16 major Bradley turn.

It would be a real doozy.

3PDH 1950 top


T.Berry said...

gotta be the 45th or 46th final high. gotta be. : ) 2250 could end up being the 87th or 88th. : )

Permabear Doomster said...

It is a nice chart.

Certainly, this could drag out another few months, 1950/60 zone is an area many are strongly considering.

I could see 1600..maybe even 1400, but really, a market almost cut in half before year end?

I'd agree we might be in recession right now, but why would the central banks not just ramp up the printing even more?

Christian Gustafson said...

The crash phase this fall depends on the Fed raising rates out of necessity at the September meeting. Ending QE and raising rates means that it all comes off, back to 1040. How fast is the question here; this is worst-case panic scenario.

A B wave bounce, then a stair-step down to a final low at the 2002-2009 trendline in 2015.

Bryan Franco said...

Maybe we are in process of leg 23 already

T.Berry said...

fed is pro stocks, have done a great job since 09', can't see raising rates for a few years. zirp is what is holding market up........ yellen as or more accommodating than ben imho. stocks should do well into 2016. after that, all.bets.off. s n' p's could print 2500-2700+ before correction. possible s n' p's drop 1000+ to 1500 for next new low. not looking @technicals but fed direction...that works

Bicycle said...

2500... no chance of that...

Fed does not lead, they have to follow energy production growth.

I hope everyone noted important event this week regarding California shale deposit extraction potential.

We're also running out of time to have a big pullback before a last blast... might just head straight to 2200 through the end of the year.

Permabear Doomster said...

re: The crash phase this fall depends on the Fed raising rates out of necessity at the September meeting.

Could you find me an example of when the fed raising rates results in a lower stock market, whether 6/12 months..or a few years?

Higher rates..are actually bullish equities.

Ohh, but I'm sure we'll see all sorts of 'told you', if the market initially drops a few percent on a rate rise.