Monday, March 24, 2014

Charts 03-23

I think we are seeing a stealth wave 1 here, but we need to see another leg down, a 5th wave that would take us down to about 1841.

We had an intraday reversal with the 2007 top, and an instant 30 handles off the SPX.  This time we had another reversal, but only a mildly-negative day at the Friday close.  Again today, with another reversal, but only 9 pts lower.  1841 tomorrow would have us some 42 handles off Friday's high, but with very little to show for it, especially since we would retrace much of that in earnest.

On my count, it will get exciting again when we retrace and reject off the old channel a second time.  This will be a wave 3 that takes us below 1800, maybe even bringing the VIX along with it.

The daily lower Bollinger is right around 1840.  Did anyone notice that the burst late today took us right up to the .382 retrace of the larger drop?  It also gained enough air to complete a ii-iv trendline, which is important in my world.

SPX 03-24 stealth W1

/ES is up 4 pts ... need to see this break down overnight for some selling and a little VIX peak in the morning.  Then the real bounce.

Hey, please note that I have finally added the Den Mother of Doom, Gail Tverberg, to the blog list.  I am very fond of her and her important work.  I listed her under TEOTWAWKI right after ATF Machine Gun.com.

4 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Or ... this morning was wave 2, and we're about to dive to SPX 1775.

Permabear Doomster said...

..after today, I think most bears would settle for 1845/40..and bail.
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I just don't see the downside power yet, but then, I been saying that for months.

Bryan Franco said...

I think the market "spoke" today.

Christian Gustafson said...

200 DMA on deck. Will explain tonight.