Monday, March 10, 2014

Charts 03-10: Adjusting the E-D

Despite all of the exciting news and copper, the market just would not get impulsive downward today.   We'll adjust what looks like an ending-diagonal in progress and look forward to next week, where SPX 1900 looms. 

One thing to notice with VIX and the volatility ETFs is how much the lower Bollingers on the daily have come back in.  The lower Bollinger for UVXY had been way down in the lower 40s, but is now back up at 58.  This suggests that while these ETFs will decline into next week, it won't be one of those scary collapses where UVXY loses 20% session over session.  I'm interested in it at $55-$60 next week.

SPX 03-10 ending diagonal
SPX 03-10 1Y
SPX 03-10 all

7 comments:

Bryan Franco said...

Dr. Copper smells a rat.

Permabear Doomster said...

It sure is a stinky rat, but don't you think Yellen will pour hundreds of a gallons of POMO fuel on the rat this summer?

Target remains 1625/1575..and then up to the moon.

kkandru said...

Hi,
Great targets. From today's action on SPX it looks like either your target 1866 met with last wave up to 1900

(or)

There's been a trend change at this point taking all the way down to 450 range.

Please comment.

Thx

Bryan Franco said...

PD - The FED will look like it's lost control if they re-accelerate QE. I don't expect that to push us to new highs.

Flood of Social media IPOs. Check.
Russell 2000 at 50x current earnings. Check. Copper and Emerging markets diverging rapidly from equities. Check. VIX not making corresponding long-term lows with equity highs. Check. FED in taper mode. Check. Magazine Covers touting the markets. Check. I am a seller right now.

Permabear Doomster said...

BF, re: market perceiving fed losing control if increase QE.
-

Fed have many times stated they will adjust QE 'as necessary'.

Besides, you know the market will ramp on 'moar QE' news, never mind the underlying mechanics of the QE in kicking up equities.
-

Christian Gustafson said...

No pause in QE until the 4/30 FOMC, then resuming after that. Gone by EOY.

kkandru said...

Hi,
Is the wave count still valid? It appears that we're heading to 1700 and boucne back to 2100+ for Primary 3

Please share thoughts.

thx