Friday, February 14, 2014

Did we top today?

No, really, I mean it.

SPX 02-14


Permabear Doomster said...


Look at the weekly momentum..look at the monthly charts..still another up candle to go.


Even you noted that number.

Christian Gustafson said...

I did, PD. But now I am not so sure. This looks like a completed 5-wave move, corresponding well to the leg up from the August, 2013 lows.

Also, the divergence of /ES against the strength of the Yen is like a coiled spring. Long weekend ahead.

Permabear Doomster said...

I'm probably the last one to attempt to fathom the micro waves.

Yet..the hourly chart I've been posting all this week....if that is a sub'2...then...

1. add 90pts to 1809...and that gets us to 1900 within 2-3 weeks

2. sub'4..-20/30pts or so
3' sub'5 30/40pts..maybe 1910/ late March.

VT - on trending waves, is now looking at that too idea too.

Have a good weekend

Depriv said...

It's most likely the top of the 5/3 only. So I think there will be one more retrace and one more run.

Some instruments/indexes might get the new top, some might not.

Bryan Franco said...

I am with Depriv, and believe the "Retrace and run" occurs on an intermediate timeframe so that the final top is in April. If we make a new closing high on this leg up, then i am open to it being the final leg per my other study. I would prefer the latter case since it would imply that a top is imminent. It would also line up better with the 1929 comparison, and it would make for more excitement sooner.

Depriv said...

Both are possible. Thr actual run can be an 5(imp), which requires only an 5/4 and 5/5, or can be a completed b(zz) of a bigger triangle or flat (or something else, of course).

Right now I prefer the 5(imp) solution as the simmetry of a ZZ is already broken.

On the other side the suspected 5/2 is actually not like a second wave, it's better suited for a zz/b.

If it's a b, then the following c(imp) would be a perfect bear trap -> bear-blood as fuel for the last upward thrust.

We will see.

Anonymous said...


LOL. Thanks.

That's some interesting stuff there.

I don't know much about Technical Analysis, but a crash this Fall wouldn't surprise me. The video of Steve Kopits is a must see - he believes the peak of conventional crude was in 2005, and goes on to show that since then about 2.5 trillion $$$ has been spent in search of legacy oil, while supplies have fallen by 1 mbpd. IN addition, most of the major oil companies have seen production fall, have cancelled major new projects, and are selling assets. Lots of well documented graphs and charts.

I note THIS also:

Wisconsin is the latest state to line up behind a national effort to amend the Constitution and cripple the federal government's ability to spend -- likely forcing steep cuts in popular earned benefit programs such as Social Security and blocking Congress from responding to economic downturns or natural disasters -- apparently with the ultimate goal of completely overhauling America's system of governance.

TEOTWAWKI, indeed.