So it looks again that Bryan's counsel is correct, that we had one sharp drop left before a top was possible in the chart. I like the SPX 1886 area by the end of February and a New Moon going into March. My friend Jeff noticed that there is very little news pending for the next couple of weeks, which leaves the market vulnerable to volumeless drift up. So let it.
If this is a 5th of a 5th, then it corresponds to the wave 1 we began back in June of 2013. Look at how that wave just ambled up or sideways, with no deep corrections. With any bears stunned and bleeding at this point, the rest of February could look like this. Feb 28 / March 3 then becomes our next "candidate top". We will watch for upper Bollinger-band touches on the daily and weekly SPX, and some sort of extreme on the McClellan oscillator.
Spring of 2014 gets much more exciting with the next few FOMC meetings, too. The April 30th one is especially important, because of the GDP print out earlier in that day, and the -- spooky now -- New Moon the previous night.
We have to take what we get from this market, but prudent bears absolutely do not NOT want a 1929-style waterfall, at least not yet. It needs to happen like in 2008 after an A-B decline and retrace, which sets up the true waterfall. Bears most of all must hope for a technically-sensible and tradable market, just one that goes in our direction.
Probably another move down on the Yen as well, before it goes into a deep retrace and upsets the carry trade. Die Yen, die.