Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Charts 02-03: Jaws of Death is Complete

I am going to follow McHugh's sage judgment here and agree with him that the top of the Jaws of Death mega-megaphone pattern is now complete.

Lower targets for the coming crash are SPX 560, if the 2002-2009 lows trendline holds, or down around SPX 460 if we overshoot the megaphone on the bottom like we did on the top.  This would be a complete market retrace back to mid-1990s levels.

SPX 02-03 a.m.

The long-term count on the Yen is what convinced me -- I had been hoping for One More Leg Down on the JPY, but instead we broke its 2-4 trendline rather decisively.

JPY weekly

5 comments:

T.Berry said...

um, i see no 1870 you've been calling for on these charts....officially off table now? i would like to sell half my long positions...tia

Christian Gustafson said...

There are E-W counts out there that still have us vaulting to 1900 and even beyond. McHugh is no longer looking for a higher high, and I think he is right not to do so. The Yen carry has supported equities since late 2011, and now it has completed a 5-wave move. The ferocity of this last selloff is telling us something.

The channel up today could support a halfway-back rally to 1795 by Friday close.

I have a few SPY calls I will likely sell into this.

T.Berry said...

thx GC. sitting tight for now..plan to sell half at 1850 and hope we to see your 1640 in march to buy back.

Bicycle said...

if this latest decline to 1737 holds

it was just a kiss back to a trendline all the way back from the nixon shock

next is ~2250 with another possible pause in the high 1900's

after that... its all over... important levels would be:

~1550
~1100
~800
~625
~450
~210 (oddly close to Karls overall 210.23 SPX call)

T.Berry said...

how soon till 2250 bicycle? by the way, i like it and one reason why i will continue to keep at least half longs riding at all times.