Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Charts 12-10: In case of taper

If we get a taper announcement from the Fed next week, we should be up around 1832 -- drifting sideways and upward until then.

Hilarity ensues.  Ultimate target for the decline is the trendline for the 2002-2009 lows.  After that, we get our currency collapse and hyperinflation of the $USD.

SPX 12-10
SPX 1Y


SPX 5Y

Anyone have a more recent version of this chart?  IIRC, around June 2015 is when we reach the point where increasing debt has a negative impact on GDP.  That would be the Minsky moment for the $USD, and real panic in the streets.



3 comments:

Permabear Doomster said...

...even if we get a taper between now and the spring..that still will leave the market with a HUGE annual QE of around 750/850bn.

On no basis, can the bears start getting overly excited about some kind of massive collapse wave.

Sorry, but you're turning Daneric.

You were boldly touting an unofficial QE-taper two months ago.

That didn't occur...then you did it again two weeks ago.

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No doubt... if no QE taper announced next Wednesday, you'll suggest QE taper - unofficial, to be cut via the schedule to be issued end December.

I still don't see under what reasoning you are coming out with these outlooks.

Hell, I'm tempted to drag up Red Dragon Leo.. an uber-doomer..endless crash calls - and still at it, and never once seems to have a 'towel throwing' point.
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Next week, say we go to sp'1830/50 zone...then tail off 2, 3%..if that. That ain't a short trade that is viable.

Bears haven't a hope in hell for months in the bigger picture.

Frankly, I almost hope more of them get nailed in February at the next minor low.

I'm tired of the crazy talk from bears..and bulls alike, because..that is what it has all largely become.

I can only suggest you stare at your downside chart for 2014...and then stare at the ramp from Oct'2011.

Bryan Franco said...

PD - You should be happy. From my readings, you've nailed it over the last several months. Also, CG hasn't been overtly "bearish" by any means. There is an old British saying, that is, to be "too clever by half". It has different meanings to most everyone. But it sounds to me like you are positioned to "win" financially in one direction, but be morally vindicated in another. In fact, by the angst you are displaying in your posts, it is making me question which market direction you really stand to profit from.

Christian Gustafson said...

Lighten up, Francis. We're busy trying to find a top here. No, I don't think it's in yet, but it's not too far out.

I'm more bearish than just about anyone on the 'net, except for Guy McPherson. But I fully endorse the Malthusian aspects of what's ahead, and accept them as necessary. Malthus is great; I think I'll re-read his Essay on the bus this week.

We're likely drawing some form of W4 up here, somewhere in between the last two posts I have put up.

Each FOMC represents a potential policy shift that must be taken seriously.

As far as my doomerish targets, just look at how the Jaws of Death played out on the DJIA in 1974 -- all the way down to the lower trendline.