Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Charts 12-17: Full moon tonight

Full moons tend to mark bottoms, which here would give us a nice rally into the Bradley turn at EOY 2013 to complete an ending-diagonal structure since late August.  A bottom tomorrow would mean that Goldman Sachs is right in that a taper in asset purchases by the Fed is on hold until March.

Last night I also noticed that if this is a wave 4 we are in, that it compares to about .382 the length of the wave 3 it is correcting on time.  It would be nice if we can drop early tomorrow, maybe enough to touch the 50DMA on the SPX at about 1766.

1766 doesn't quite meet Bryan's requirement for a 3% drop for a significant top here -- 1758 is required for that -- but it would have decent chart support.

SPX 12-17

Hey, neat, Google's Blogger staff fixed the problem I was having rendering images in old blog posts.  So the great Casey Serin is at home again in Deflation Land.  Thanks, GOOG!

I still have the BMW pictured in that post -- she turns 24 next year.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Charts 12-13: Larger E-D more likely

Pullback to 1750 into 12/18 FOMC ... suggests no "taper" announcement just yet ... the tell may be that there is no press conference scheduled afterwards.  (double-checking this...)

This sets up a rally into EOY and record bonuses on Wall Street, with a wedge target here around 1850 which also gives us similar (i) and (v) waves.  Caution advised, Bradley turns have worked well through 2013, and there is a "major" one due 1/1/2014.

SPX 12-13

A new bear market can keep bonds in check for the next 18 months, until we bottom, Yellen's Fed finally loses control, and hyperinflation arrives.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Salute to pebblewriter

pebblewriter is an analyst blogger who specializes in market harmonics -- mysterious ratios and relationships that go way beyond simple fibs -- and who can at times have Rainman-like accuracy.

Pebble's world is filled with crabs, bats, and butterflies, his own private technical zoo, expressing the zigs and zags of the market and how he makes sense of them.  He also manages his own hedge fund now, the real deal.

The other day he posted a warning about the SPX 1823 level on the chart, which has been on his mind for a long time.  It's certainly worth keeping an eye on here.

I plotted a trendline through 1823 on FOMC next week, December 18.  pebble is interested in the price target only; he did not specify 12/18 for it.  But here's how it looks:

SPX pink trendline through Pebble's 1823 on FOMC

The rest of the blue lines are my usual bearish collapse plot to take us back to the lower trendline of the Jaws of Death.

We still have to make it back up to 1823, not that far away at all, especially with important numbers in the morning.  If we gap up and keep going, then today marked the C of a 4th wave flat that corrected us from the 1813 high.

GLTA, but especially to pebblewriter.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Charts 12-10: In case of taper

If we get a taper announcement from the Fed next week, we should be up around 1832 -- drifting sideways and upward until then.

Hilarity ensues.  Ultimate target for the decline is the trendline for the 2002-2009 lows.  After that, we get our currency collapse and hyperinflation of the $USD.

SPX 12-10


Anyone have a more recent version of this chart?  IIRC, around June 2015 is when we reach the point where increasing debt has a negative impact on GDP.  That would be the Minsky moment for the $USD, and real panic in the streets.

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Charts 12-06: More 4, please

I'm not on board with Daneric's 1-2 count, but I would like to see more decline in the indexes this week, to 1746 on the SPX, for an A-B-C count.

This would complete the head and shoulders we have in play from the 1779 neckline, give us a C of 4 that is about 1.618x the length of A of 4, and retrace roughly .382 of what I am counting as "W3" on an ending digonal.

It would also be enough of a pullback to satisfy Bryan's historical wish for a pullback of 3% or better before the final (?) top, while giving us the expected Christmas / EOY bonus rally.

Counts below, good luck out there.  HighRev says we're getting into some dangerous waters lately.

SPX 12-06

Here's the larger ending-diagonal.  1746 this week would allow for a W5 similar to W1 to finish up 2013.

SPX 12-06 6M