Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Hey, Bryan

My friend Randy and I were kicking around the idea of topping into the December 18 FOMC, presumably on a real policy shift announcement at the Fed.  So I took the current wedgy-thing we are forming and stretched it out for two more waves -- a 4th wave that retraces us a standard .382, and a 5th wave back up to the wedge trendline at ~1844 on 12/18.

Here's what I came up with (just a quick sketch over lunch at work):

SPX E-D into December FOMC

This looks pretty good as an ending-diagonal formation, but it also fulfills your requirement for a minimum-3% headfake pullback before putting in a final top.

I'll work some more on this tonight.


Bryan Franco said...

A Picasso! Just exactly what I had in mind.

Permabear Doomster said...

Hmm.. well, you know what I'm going to say..so..I won't say it.

I do have that micro-count..but after the 5'..I'm looking for a sub 4..and then 5.. of 'blue 3'..see weekly'8..which I post most days.

One of the biggest failures of the bears in the past few years is under-estimating the waves higher..not just in price..but more so..in time.

ANY Fed policy change in December would be truly bizarre.