Sunday, November 17, 2013

Charts 11-15

Low-volume drift upwards continues; I'll be interested in a potential top by FOMC notes on Wednesday.  Whether it's the end of a fifth wave or just a third (with 4 and 5 to follow), we won't know for a while.

If Monday can gap us down a bit and sell-off, then we'll have the gap at 1798 to close later this week, possibly crossing the channel entirely up to 1710.

SPX 11-15

3 comments:

Bryan Franco said...

you know where i stand.. i have to sit on my hands until 3% down followed by new highs on a closing basis. that is unless i want to play for something up to, but not exceeding 20% down.... ugggh

Christian Gustafson said...

Trust me, Bryan, I have your rule very much in mind when looking at long-term charts.

You can count an enormous 5-wave ending diagonal up from 1074, as a series of ABCs. The problem is that there are overlapping waves in there, such that we would need to descend quite a ways to create an unbroken wave 2-4 trendline on the chart.

So ... if we do ever top soon, I'll show that target and keep it in mind for where that wave (a 4th) could possibly bottom. And a violent 5th wave up would follow. Something like the 2007 top.

McHugh is starting to get worried with all of this bullishness. He is still very much in the Jaws of Death camp and a coming long-term decline, something truly catastrophic. Up until now, he thought this top might take a few more months to form, but now we are closing in on his personal top targets. He's starting to wonder about the timing here. BTW, his trading program has been making serious bank for his subscribers in 2013.

Bryan Franco said...

good to know, and thank you for the detailed reply ... btw, we are grid-down here in ann arbor, michigan tonight on some high wind gusts, and i think there is a full moon to boot. may some sort of wave 4 start soon!