Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Charts 10-16: Snoooooze

Well the market never doubted that the GOP would flake out completely on the debt ceiling debate.  Well, fine, let them incinerate themselves in the eyes of what's left of their supporters.  An important part of a Fourth Turning cycle like this is the discrediting of our institutions, including our political parties.  So we have made some progress here.

What I'm not expecting any longer is any kind of sharp pullback from the high, the "wave 2" I've been looking for a few days.  It's probably not going to happen now.  But that also means that the big gains are already made on the chart.  We've got 2 weeks now to creep up a mere 27 handles on the chart -- we nearly did that today!

I'm still sticking with the SPX 1748 area on Halloween afternoon, going into the 3pm release of the November POMO schedule.  Between now and then ... sideways and up ... dreadfully dull low-volume days ... VIX trickling lower ... UVXY in the low 20s or even teens ... just a miserable two weeks.

The November POMO schedule release then becomes the next opportunity for a real change of pace here.  Is there an insider technical reason that the Fed may taper?  Are they sucking up too many Treasuries, resulting in failures-to-deliver and serious collateral problems out in the debt markets?  Any number less than $85B announced for next month will likely drop us 30 handles on the SPX within the final hour.

This is exactly the kind of policy and momentum shift we need to start us down.

So hang in there if the next two weeks are a sleep-fest.

SPX 10-16

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