Monday, September 2, 2013

Charts 09-02: Last rally

We had a plausible complete count (updated -- see the chart) on the pop down to 1628 on Friday, and now we have 3 weeks to head up to a final top at 1768 into the German election.  /ES futures are up 15 handles, looks good.

We're looking for one last 5-wave move up; this week could contain subwaves i and ii of the set.  If ii finishes this Friday as a sharp selloff, that will leave a lot of people short and looking for the gap down into a wave 3 kinda Monday morning ... which they won't get.

SPX 08-30

3 comments:

Permabear Doomster said...

Hmm, you might be right, but weekly..even monthly charts are ticking lower..not higher.

Going to be damn difficult to break new index highs.

Frankly, I'll be aghast if we break into the 1690s and just keep on going.
--

I have to say, you seem surprisingly bullish, considering your bigger outlook.

As ever...one day at a time.

Christian Gustafson said...

I just think we have got to put in that touch of the far side of the 2009 rally channel.

The longer it takes, the further it runs away from us.

Larger count has us in a big 5-wave E-D, which began an awful long time ago at 1266.

W1 ~ W5 for that right at 1768, which is where the top of the channel is ... on 9/20.

If we top and turn there, there are even a couple of Bradley turns that I bet we nail after that, including 1/1/2014 as a low and an awesome Bear market long. But first we need a proper top.

Depriv said...

Hi,

The last up from 06/24 to 08/05 does not look like a corrective wave: also, the actual one down looks/counts better as an impulse.

IMHO.

A big ED at the end looks tempting after so many failed doomsdays, but...

Well, we will se.