Friday, April 5, 2013

Charts 04-05: Back to the zig-zag

The lack of follow-through today after the opening gap down suggested that we were completing a five-wave move on one of those opening dumps that marks the end of a move.  Forget the irregular flat, that was an interesting idea, but I think the zig-zag 4th wave here is the right call after all.

That would put us in b of 4, pulling back early Monday, and then rallying again into the release of the FOMC notes late Tuesday.  I propose that those FOMC minutes, plus the lack of POMO on Wednesday, will send us lower late in the week to SPX 1527 and the bottom edge of the channel.

I had a bid yesterday in the AH for some 1-day mayfly SPY puts.  It missed by .01 and I just ran out of time in the 15-minute AH options session.  If I had nabbed those, however, I hope I would have had the sense to cover them at the open this morning.  The melt-up on days like this is just so evil.  Never mind anyone who tried to short the hole on that opening.  UVXY seemed like the tell on this today, up by only a moderate amount, and then withering on the vine.

SPX 04-05
30D
6M

4 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Er, actually, the B-wave drop Monday should be to SPX 1545 for a little zig-zag there, too.

Jeff Schrader said...

What does yesterday afternoon and today foretell? This is crazy bullish optimism.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yeesh. Certainly no zig-zag, huh?

I was trying to give the market some leeway in letting it pullback, then advance to a finish.

Now we're up near the upper Jaws of Death trendline. 1584 as I type this.

Christian Gustafson said...

FWIW, it's a New Moon tonight!

LOL