Saturday, March 30, 2013

Charts 03-29: Jaws of Death ahead

Daneric has a good count of the short-term situation for this upcoming week, a little higher (1580?) before a reversal and sell-off.  He really ought to note, however, that there is a serious ALT scenario to the top he is charting, where we drop to the lower channel boundary and head back up to a final higher high.  Looking at the tops in 2000 and 2007, I think this is very likely.

I mentioned this earlier, that all of this drama and fuss could be us completing a wave 3, with a small wave 5 still left to go.  We're unlikely to top at 1580 -- if we have come all this way, we may as well complete the 13-year "Jaws of Death" megaphone pattern, north of SPX 1590.

The lower Bollinger on the VIX is coming in nicely.  Hopefully, when we get around to May, the floor will fall out again on the VIX -- perhaps after the May 1 FOMC -- giving us a daily candle on the VIX below the lower Bollinger ... setting us up for a serious buy signal on the volatilities.  UVXY to have a 5-handle by then?

Saw Werner Herzog's Stroszek tonight, another work of German genius.  My favorite is the wiry old guy running about spouting German at the Wisconsinites, referencing essays by Schopenhauer (a favorite in my house) and seeing the grand conspiracy all around him.  And the dancing chicken, of course.

SPX 03-29

We dance until the money runs out.

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