Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Charts 03-20: 1576 on deck

It looks like the Cyprus mini-crisis is over for this week, and we can complete the larger wave 3 rally to a top projected out to SPX 1576.  This would be a double-top with the 2007 intraday high, but not the final top this year.

We are so close now that the Jaws of Death megaphone will likely complete on the S&P 500.  I took a close look over the weekend at McHugh's work calling for final highs above 1700 on the SPX, and can only conclude that his work is based specifically on the DJIA completing its own Jaws of Death by touching its megaphone top.  This would pull the SPX far above the top bound of its megaphone.  Pick your index; I'll go with the SnP, thank you.

I chatted with a couple of work friends yesterday, who remembered that I am known as something of a Doomer, a critic of the real-estate bubble, and general skeptic of the world today.  They were interested in my current outlook, which of course is unchanged.  So I need to write up a general restatement of the deflationist point of view, my take on it at any rate, the core narrative for the days ahead, and what I plan to do about it.

I'll work on that this week, while the market finishes up this rally.

Charts -- looking for an aggressive short entry -- Q1 SPY puts? -- if we can close up in the ether Friday.

SPX 03-20 a.m.

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