Saturday, January 26, 2013

The 16 percent solution

Looking for a top @ SPX 1528 into McHugh's March 1st phi mate turn date.

The 2007-2009 cycle was 1.16x the scalar magnitude of the 2000 crash.  I have extrapolated the 2007 tape by a factor of .156, for reasons explained in notes on the chart.

What we don't know is time, the pace of the collapse.  This will have our full attention in the coming months.

SPX Jaws of Death


bmihogh said...

If the similarity (with the previous high) fits then there won't be any more retrace, just a final push for the top (IMHO it'll be a bit higher than you think, maybe even higher than 1550).

We will see.

Christian Gustafson said...

Wedges can have throw-overs, sure. 1528 is where I have the top of the big wedge on February 28.

McHugh's phi mate turns can be deadly-good. His last one was ... December 31.

Monday morning we have a Durables number AND Caterpillar earnings. I think we'll pull back 50 SPX handles over the next 2 weeks, before putting in that last burst to the top.

Christian Gustafson said...

What is neat about that chart, is that a move back to 1158 to complete the break from wedge, completed on August 2nd, runs right into a support TL from a lower wedge on the chart.

And the retrace, proportional to the 57% retrace of 2007, takes us back up to ... 1370. See it?

I tell ya, if we can ever get our damned top, the collapse is going to be something else!