McHugh still expects a final high above 1500, possibly weeks away, Tom DeMark came out with 1492 this week, and I think we have a convergence of wedges and junk in the 1484 area by about Tuesday. So I'll take 1484 for now.
Tuesday would allow the excitement from late today to play out, with one more sideways move and a final push to a mid-day high and reversal. VIX in the 12s. Weekly SPX Bollinger up there. Divergences on RSI for this peak compared to earlier ones. All the signs are there.
I still think that a rough re-run of the 2007-2009 tape could be a decent sketch of the drop. Look at the bullishness, the invulnerability that the Fed has placed on the market. I've updated the spreadsheet with a 1484 top and plotted its price and time on the attached charts. Having this as a reference will at least give us an idea if the 2013 cycle is proceeding faster or slower than it did then.
Europe may play the role of subprime mortgages on this cycle, with something breaking badly in late 2013.
Edit: here's a HK machine gun for sale, cheap ...