Sunday, January 6, 2013

Charts 01-04

For Monday, I'm looking for a seemingly-sharp pullback back to support, which is then reversed with another manic rally.  SPX 1510 by Friday would be great.

That would make a nice top for the retracement rally since March 6, 2009.

I've been working on applying the 2007-2009 tape to the current outlook.  First, of course, we need a top, which I don't think we have just yet.  The chart above has us in a ABC zig-zag wave that could top into the long weekend this Friday.

What I count as an "A" wave from the 1576 top in 2007 ran 320 points.  If we can make it up to my projected top of SPX 1510, then another 320 pt drop from here nails the .382 retrace of the entire rally, right at 1190.  From there, it just gets better and better.

Anyway, I've shared out a Google spreadsheet with the 2007-2009 numbers, which I will adjust to the present once we get our top.

It's a workable model, or at the very least a baseline case for 2013.


Permabear Doomster said...

Difficult to call the smaller moves this week.

My best guess, we see Monday higher..maybe 1470/72..but 1445/35 later in the week.

I'm still guessing we hit low 1500s 'soon'.


Have a 'google following' block for your blog.

It will help people be reminded of new posts.

Have a good week !

Christian Gustafson said...

Thanks, PD!

I first added the "Google+ Followers" widget, whereupon Google upgraded my Blogger account to a Google+ one, changing my handle from "christiangustafson" to "Christian Gustafson".

So now my cover is totally blown.

I pulled that widget and went with the old Blogger one instead.

Led by Dr. Copper, /ES is a little red now, but it's nothing to write home about (yet).

bmihogh said...

Wow, what happened?

No three peaks & co for the new year?

A very nice candidate is stalking on the daily chart...

You know, I would have never start watching this pattern if you didn't pull it last year, so don't drop it please :-)

Christian Gustafson said...

Funny, I was thinking about 3PDH the other day, and what I would do with the poor thing.

I'll take a fresh look at it tonight.