Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Charts 12-05: Critical point

Tomorrow and Friday are very important.  We put in a small change in the McClellan oscillator today, so we are looking ahead to a big move.

It needs to be down.  I want to see us at 1351 on Friday, and 1343 again on Tuesday.  If we do this, I arrive at a target of 1165 for wave 1 down, in mid-March.  From there, the fib numbers and supports work beautifully, I can get us to bounce off horizontal support at SPX 1010 and (yes) even 666.

The math and proportions of the line we are tracing are truly beautiful.  Combined with the seasonality shown in the 2008-9 cycle, we are primed to repeat the cycle, but with stunning new lows.  I want to trade this market!

If we're headed up ... then we are back to the bullshit limbo of looking for a Yet Another Top ... whenever we get it, and then figuring out where we go from there.  Once again, we bears are a bunch of schnooks, Freieren, assholes.

1351 Friday would be a save us a lot of time and worry, so let's do it.

I posted a chart early in the session this morning, that included an Andrews fork.  The fork is unchanged on tonight's chart, and you can see that it contained the sharp bounce off 1398 from later today.  Assuming 1351 by Friday, I expect a similar bounce on Monday, for a minor (iv) up.

3 of 1 of C down
The precise wave timing on this chart doesn't sync with McHugh's next phi mate turn date, but who knows, maybe it will still line up with an inflection when we get there.  And there's always the fudge factor of a couple of days.

We took the girls to "Zoo Lights" at the Woodland Park Zoo in Seattle tonight, a holiday fundraiser where they keep the zoo open at night with extensive light displays.  The Point Defiance Zoo down near Tacoma is famous for doing this each year, but they are going to miss the bulk of their visitors from up north (us) now.  Even the zoos are getting cutthroat with each other these days!

-4 so far on the overnight /ES and I hope I don't ruin it by typing it here ...


Permabear Doomster said...


I still think Mr Deflation will be the stronger force for some time to come.

Yet, the time frame is the tricky part.

I certainly don't think its a 'must' we break <1343 this side of Christmas.

It really wouldn't matter if it takes a few extra weeks. Although I will note, I certainly want to see the June 1266 low tested no later than end January.

hang in there, but as ever, the serious money should still be using short-stops.

dbongo said...

CG, Market is heading to new highs. Please, enough with S&P 400 calls, quite honestly you've looked like a fool over the past 3 years. On a positive note though, you haven't looked quite as bad as your mentor, DONGLICKER. LULZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ