Saturday, December 29, 2012

Charts 12-28

I still don't see why we can't have one last burst up toward 1500 -- into January opex.  For all of the drama in the overnight /ES futures this past week, the actual trading during RTH is tepid and full of overlaps.  We closed right on the .382 retrace of where I have got "A" charted.

The pols will work out something stupid in the next couple of days, which ought to get us through a few weeks.  Or ... or ... this POTUS really is out golfing while it's all falling apart.  I can't wait to see this guy when the SPX is making new lows below 666 and his approval rating is about at, I dunno, 13.1 percent.

After the holidays, I'll be back posting regularly.  Long story, involving a little Kunstler-ische happy motoring.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Update 12-19 a.m.: To the moon, Alice

If "A" was 95 pts, and "B" ended at 1411, then a 95-pt "C" can reach SPX 1506 by McHugh's turn date on 12/31.

If the good Dr. McHugh is right in his Jaws of Death top call, we will honor him with an extensive tribute in this blog.  Cheers!

SPX borstal breakout!

Monday, December 17, 2012

Charts 12-17: Anyone else see the triangle?

This is looking more and more like a "B"-wave triangle.  We would need one more bump down for "e" of B.  But we may not get it.

/ES is up 4.5 pts as I post this, so we may just gap up in the morning and keep going.  I hope we can pull back one more time to the mid-1420s, so I can get a better entry on this.

EOY call for UVXY ... $12?  We will see.

SPX 12-17

Friday, December 14, 2012

Charts 12-14: Another day of this

A little more grinding down, a little more sideways, a little higher VIX, still looking for SPX 1405 for a bottom here.

If we rally hard into EOY, how will we reverse course and begin heading down?  Maybe after the initial euphoria of a "fiscal cliff" deal (all based on CBO models) has set in, the grim math of reality will be obvious to everyone, perhaps even the credit rating agencies.

SPX 12-14

Oh, what the hell, why not ...


Thursday, December 13, 2012

Charts 12-13

So far so good on this retrace.  The higher high -- 1500 by year-end? -- will come if we get a deal on the fiscal cliff over the weekend.

Republicans got nothin', and it doesn't matter anyway.  It will all be over when the $USD collapses in 2014.  Enjoy the circus.

SPX 12-13
60D, showing the inverse H&S setup

Hey I forgot to post my VIX chart

We do have room to pop and drop on the VIX. 

Something like this?

VIX 12-13 1Y

SPX 1405 by Friday?

Posting has been thin this week -- very busy lately with the holidays.  I did build a very solid -- and cheap! -- IKEA bunk bed for my daughters.  They love it, and with the additional space, they now have room for a very nice wooden desk that I found in the garbage on 15th in upper Ballard.  The desk was trashed, but I stripped and reconditioned it, and it is now a fine piece of furniture, and a good place for my girls to do their studies.

If A is in at 95 points, then a C wave, similar to A, would take us to 1500 if we find support at 1405.  A carefully controlled B-wave correction -- a thin little channel, no scary giant red candles -- could do that for us by Friday close.

A final top @1500 is then possible with exciting news from the solons in Washington D.C. over the weekend, plus some short-covering, plus the holiday low-volume HFT march up up up.

I remain fascinated with the idea of a 2007-2009 replay in the markets for the coming months.  I'll do my homework on this and post the analysis tonight or tomorrow.

SPX 12-13 a.m.

The 1Y chart gives a better idea of what a blow-off top into EOY 2012 would look like.  You can also see the inverse head & shoulders from SPX 1343.


Monday, December 10, 2012

Charts 12-10: North to 1500 it is, then

McClellan oscillator for the last 5 days ... 77.87, 70.46, 66.17, 67.62, 69.93 ...

Small changes each day, we're moving sideways in what looks like a B-wave triangle.  She's wired to blow, presumably mid-session Wednesday with the FOMC.

If we make 1500, I'm sticking with the 2007-2009 chart I posted earlier today, until the tape tells us otherwise.

Actually, repeating that cycle would be the most satisfying outcome for all of this.  The mainstream analysts would start to notice the correlation by late May, and mention it with trepidation.  One by one, the financial teevee crowd will go before the cameras, talking of bottoms and generational buys, while they unload their actual positions like there is no tomorrow (because there isn't).

I'll do some more work on the 2007-2009 redux later this week.  For now, the first target ("a" down) would be the .382 fib back to 666 at 1181 in mid-June.  At least, that's what this fringe doomer blogger thinks.

SPX 12-10

Chart experiment

So let's say we get the blow-off top into year's end.  What if we pull back early this week, into Wednesday's FOMC, and the Fed comes out and promises to do whatever it takes to support the market with ample liquidity through the annoying speed bump of the fiscal cliff.  Maybe Ben even throws in a word of advice for removing the debt ceiling altogether.

There are upper bearish wedge trendlines right at SPX 1500 at the end of 2012.  What if we rally furiously into EOY and actually top there?

I went back and took the big picture SPX chart, added a blow-off rally like this, and then pasted the entire 2007-2009 cycle right on top of it, starting at 1500 on January 1.

Yeah, I know history doesn't repeat ... but this chart ... just take a look. 

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Charts 12-06: Danger ...

Days like this are frustrating, until you zoom out and see that we are still fighting over that old trendline up from 1074.

There's an outside chance that a nasty-bad post-election NFP report tomorrow, plus all the tension building up from the fiscal cliff haggling, plus the loss of this trendline, plus AAPL in its own third wave down, could really blow us up tomorrow and all through next week.  The target would be a wave of 1.618x magnitude of what I've been counting as a wave 1 down from 1464, reaching the SPX 1215 area by the end of next week.  VIX would be in the 30s.

It would echo the drop in early August of 2011.  If we get it, and the 1165 low in January, it speeds up the schedule for 2013 dramatically.  We could see the dominoes fall as early as Spring.

Just thought I would mention it.


Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Charts 12-05: Critical point

Tomorrow and Friday are very important.  We put in a small change in the McClellan oscillator today, so we are looking ahead to a big move.

It needs to be down.  I want to see us at 1351 on Friday, and 1343 again on Tuesday.  If we do this, I arrive at a target of 1165 for wave 1 down, in mid-March.  From there, the fib numbers and supports work beautifully, I can get us to bounce off horizontal support at SPX 1010 and (yes) even 666.

The math and proportions of the line we are tracing are truly beautiful.  Combined with the seasonality shown in the 2008-9 cycle, we are primed to repeat the cycle, but with stunning new lows.  I want to trade this market!

If we're headed up ... then we are back to the bullshit limbo of looking for a Yet Another Top ... whenever we get it, and then figuring out where we go from there.  Once again, we bears are a bunch of schnooks, Freieren, assholes.

1351 Friday would be a save us a lot of time and worry, so let's do it.

I posted a chart early in the session this morning, that included an Andrews fork.  The fork is unchanged on tonight's chart, and you can see that it contained the sharp bounce off 1398 from later today.  Assuming 1351 by Friday, I expect a similar bounce on Monday, for a minor (iv) up.

3 of 1 of C down
The precise wave timing on this chart doesn't sync with McHugh's next phi mate turn date, but who knows, maybe it will still line up with an inflection when we get there.  And there's always the fudge factor of a couple of days.

We took the girls to "Zoo Lights" at the Woodland Park Zoo in Seattle tonight, a holiday fundraiser where they keep the zoo open at night with extensive light displays.  The Point Defiance Zoo down near Tacoma is famous for doing this each year, but they are going to miss the bulk of their visitors from up north (us) now.  Even the zoos are getting cutthroat with each other these days!

-4 so far on the overnight /ES and I hope I don't ruin it by typing it here ...

Update 12-05: Sweep the leg!

SPX 1343 is possible as early as this Friday, if this Andrews pitchfork is any good.

Be careful out there!

Orange lines for the pitchfork

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Charts 12-4: Breakdown

Permabear Doomster mentioned that this may take longer to play out than expected, which sounds good after today.  The next move I'm looking for is a return to 1343 and a sharp bounce.  The full wave 3 down takes the entire month of December, finishing up 12/31.

Today was annoying, never quite getting that breakdown through 1400.  Meanwhile, I'm holding some toxic ETF like UVXY, bumping up my stop a few dimes at a time.  It actually behaves nicely, oscillating gently between Bollinger bands on the 2-min chart, until SPX jerks north and UVXY just dies, taking out my stop and many others.

You can't hold UVXY without a stop.  If the 1500 / blow-off top crowd is right, it's going back below $10.  Hopefully I'll get another nice entry on it soon.

/ES is up 6 points tonight, but it could just be a halfway-back overnight move.  I guess we'll know in the morning where this goes. 

Dropped by Value Village on the way home tonight, found a double DVD copy of John Waters's "Pink Flamingos" and "Female Trouble".  Score!

SPX 12-04

Monday, December 3, 2012

Charts 12-03: Micro-count Monday!

Wave 2 sure looks complete today, both in its form and magnitude.  I also count a clean 5 waves down from the top, one of those mincing, delicate waves that looks like it's stalling, waiting for a headline to save the day.

At some point we will likely get that headline, for a "compromise" or continuing resolution or a Gramm-Rudman XXIII scam to run on us, and we'll get our bounce.  For now, I want to see 2 weeks of serious selling, selling that builds to a white-hot panic.  We've got a lot of air under us.

Micro-count of today
Ending-diagonal triangle C of 2
If we can hit my targets by 12/14

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Charts 11-30: 1200s?

The fiscal cliff issue hits home this week; no surprise, the President is completely useless here.  I'm looking forward to his leadership and management skills when the shit really jumps off next year.

Private Vasquez: "Let's rock!"
I'm really digging Permabear Doomster's work lately; I wish I had discovered his excellent market blog much earlier.  Already he's proposing idea about certain fibs for the days ahead that are making me think about how all of this may play out.

The overall theme of theme of this blog is that we have a stiff bout of deflation and uncontrolled deleveraging dead ahead, resulting in a 5-wave plunge to new market lows.  Upon the completion of this crash and collapse, the petrodollar standard itself may break down, ending in a dramatic hyperinflation of the US dollar, and the end of its reign as world reserve currency.

Any profits made during the collapse, and not lost altogether from bank vaporization or re-re-hypothecated asset swindles, will need to be disposed of before it is complete.  The plan is to trade the collapse, and, if successful, get out of fiat money altogether.

Then, it's time to get some geese and go live the World Made by Hand.

from 1 DM to ... 1 DM