Monday, November 19, 2012

Charts 11-19: Über-bearish case

We took so long to grind down in that selloff, that we were terribly oversold.  Are we now headed for crazy new highs, or ... are we in a wave 2?

I'll present the Über-bearish case.  If you can find anyone else posting charts on the internet who is this bearish, while making an actual technical case for it, please let me know.  No Yahoo! message board crash calls, please.

We regained the 200 DMA today, but we still have even more important resistance left overhead -- the rally trendline from 1074 through 1266.  The bulls have to retake this one, and soon.  The 50% retrace of the drop from 1464 to 1343 is 1403, which is where I have (i) of my W1 ending, on about November 28.  If you believe in lunar events marking chart turns, there is a full moon that night.

A failure at 1403 gives us 3 weeks of free-fall, to the low 1200s (1202? 1206?) before December opex. This drop would actually take us through the 2009 rally trendline up from 666.

The turn date at EOY would be the end of a 4th wave retrace that attempts to retake the critical rally trendline from SPX 666, giving us our 5th wave down into January.

Late January and all of February is retrace and a final attempt to retake the trendline from 666, this time failing at SPX 1300.  The market collapses to SPX 589 by the end of June (2013).

See the 3Y chart for the trendlines and how these waves would fit them.

mid-term
3Y

2 comments:

Bicycle said...

Nice commod chart from 1900 on from Grantham's latest: http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4df61ae34bd7c8372e040000-590/for-the-past-100-years-the-prices-of-commodities-have-trended-downward-as-technology-has-made-them-cheaper-to-extract-and-produce-grantham-thinks-that-trend-has-now-permanently-ended.jpg

Permabear Doomster said...

re: This drop would actually take us through the 2009 rally trendline up from 666.
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We have already broken that on the big Dow'30.

Along with the weak transports, there is are a lot of warning signs out there.

good luck for next week!