Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Charts 11-14: Toasted channel

Well today set things straight on the progress of the wave 3 down.  We broke through the optimistic channel I had drawn, and now it fits much more nicely into an Andrews Fork drawn from the top.

1.618x the 61 pt wave 1 targets the 1334 area.  I could see that move on Monday, but only if they can hold things together Thursday and Friday with some retrace.

If the larger wave only bottoms in the 1300 area (and not down near 1260), it shortens much of the subsequent waves that would build upon it.   Some simple fib math then puts the trendline between the 2002 and 2009 lows back on the table as a possible target for the full fall 2013 wave 3 of C down.  SPX 565?

VIX still below 18 -- no real fear out there yet.  Super congrats to all FB longs!  You beat the "obvious" retail trade.

A rally into the EOY would likely be on delusional optimism that the Fed will figure out how to keep the plates spinning, plus short squeezes on the "obvious" fiscal cliff trade.

1 comment:

Permabear Doomster said...

good stuff.

Its looking kinda good for the next few weeks.

The only issue is when..and where do we floor.

So many variables, but I'm guessing somewhere beween Dec'3 and 11th.

A minor ramp (wave'4 ?) into thanksgiving seems best guess.

Good wishes for the days ahead!