SPX 2034 as a candidate top

There is a post and some discussion over at Daneric's about 2034 SPX as a possible target for this awful thing.  Everyone has got ideas and charts and technical voodoo on the market, which is the whole point of blogging it all and keeping the conversation going.

What makes the 2034 SPX level interesting for me is that it nails the top of a long-term and very important trendline -- right on FOMC day, September 17th.  This fits with a crackpot theory of mine, that the market will not believe the tightening rhetoric at all from the Fed, until it is forced to do so by having cold water splashed in its face.  Only then will it react -- hard.

Going forward, FOMCs may be increasingly bearish inflection points.  We could see an actual rate hike as early as the January 28th meeting.

We have some time to kill before September FOMC, so I'm proposing an ending-diagonal triangle for the final waves up to the top.  A terminal pattern is badly needed here.

SPX 8-29 30D

From September FOMC, we would return to the SPX 1904 level again for another bounce off the 200 DMA and a final kissback / rejection of the old rally channel (a pink line on my chart).

Here's the move down from 9/17 FOMC to a big turn window around the October Full Moon.

SPX 08-29 60D

I've rehabilitated the nested-double-Three Peaks and a Domed House patterns here as well.  It's good to have them both back on the charts.  Remember, FOMCs going forward are market panic-attacks.

SPX 08-29 1Y 3PDH

This builds up to the January 28 FOMC, where a (surprise?) minor rate hike signals an end to the freebies and crashes the market back to 1074 SPX into May.

SPX 08-29 4Y

And the crash into May ... is only "A" down.  Good times.  Until we get an actual top, I like the shape and timing of this highly speculative model.