I can't find the link at the moment, but Zero Hedge mentioned that the end of the month is when the Fed sells bonds to meet their balance sheet commitments, so tomorrow should have a weak bias. So maybe we stall out some more and finish up a triangle pattern down around 2660.
Fresh money on November 1 should finally give us the boost to get through the overhead channel resistance from the decline. Once we're through and retest it as support, we'll keep going, because it's a C wave, an impulse.
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17 comments:
I'm definitely looking forward to the election and the New Moon (danger!).
Looking ahead, I think the New Moon in December could be interesting as well. It would setup a situation where the Fed holds rates steady at the December FOMC, rallying us into mid-January.
But we'll worry about that later.
I've now urinated on the bears of yesterday. We must go higher in order to go lower
We gapped completely out of the bearish channel. I still wonder if we will return to test it as support, if the Fed is indeed draining liquidity later today.
Great bottom call! What are the odds for new highs?
i won't curse it
i'm focused on the New Moon and the election next week, and a reversal at SPX ~2820.
have us in 4 down of C up of 2 up. 5 of C should "extend" to that high.
Janet with some profound insight. Where would we be without these cutting edge ideas?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/yellen-says-rising-us-deficit-unsustainable-if-i-had-a-magic-wand-i-would-raise-taxes.html
Make sure to grab a pint of the new Ben & Jerry's flavor Pecan Resist! #wokecapitalism
Rally in A of an A-B-C seems to look good to me, thus no need to change till we see evidence otherwise, IMHO. If A ends way higher than expected, then this whole corrective dive thing was a C to end a big wave 4, and thus blow off wave 5 still to come. If A rally as we expect - good, but not spectacular - then we face a royal crash attempt once C rally dies somewhere between SP 2820 and 2860. Thus, waiting to see how big A wave is for the "tell."
Friendly reminder to readers that if we are correcting the full range of 2940 -> 2604, that the 50% retrace of this is only 2772, and the .618 retrace is 2811.
All depends on size of the A wave. If we get a BIG A wave, then maybe the 2604 low was the end of a very big wave 4. If, as expected, the A wave ends with higher prices tomorrow - maybe Monday at the latest - then the C wave will likely soon fizzle somewhere just above the 2800 level. Either way, we should have a good handle on all this by the end of next week. Both the bulls and bear should be praying for an outside A wave (the current rally off the lows,) though for different reason.
The drones that Google created are turning on them. Good.
Well, I've also said previously that it's already 'any time', but right now there is at least 40% chance that the last bottom around 2600 was just the end of a fourth wave and we have one more violent top left above 3k.
Was that it?
Depriv, I agree with you. However, we have to side-step the 1929 crash repeat set-up, which suggest another modest down day is followed by another 4 day rally run above SP 2800. If the markets see then start to slide again then one better be prepared to see some serious red ink.
Back to 2600 next week
I agree. 2750 never again
2820 this week, then 2316 (by Thanksgiving)
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