Futures are red tonight over North Korea worry, but what we are looking for is a sharp decline to overlap the first leg up at 2454 SPX, so that waves 1 and 4 overlap just enough for a textbook E-D. The 5th wave would then put in a slight new high ahead of next week's FOMC.
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| SPX 9-4 15 min candles |
29 comments:
Overlap achieved!
great day to start making a shopping list. stocks on sale don't last long. sept is the worst month of the year for returns but a good month to be a buyer. it's very possible stocks could pull back up to 5% but then we'll resume the 9 year uptrend.
it's not different this time. lol.
Dollar index fighting for its life. Major inflection pt
congrats to all those who loaded up the boat with s&p puts last friday
I bought SVXY at the low today, though I fear a modest pop to new highs then die is in the offing, so likely a very quick trade. Yep, this time is not different, big bad bear always follows big smiling bull. Martin Armstrong Sept 11 war start is looming, and, no, war is not good for the markets, not when it likely equals a trade war with those supporting NK, such as China.
Kevin. What are the net implications of a China trade war on u.s. treasuries? Consider both sides of the coin, if you will.
"Consider both sides of the coin, if you will".
Bottom to Top - and then back again.
It's called a sine wave.
http://existentialcomics.com/comic/186
Passing from one Age to another involves death - and birth.
Why should it crash - when it is coming...
Hawaii Considers A "Universal Basic Income" As Robots Seen Stealing Jobs, There's Just One Catch...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-05/hawaii-considers-universal-basic-income-robots-seen-stealing-jobstheres-just-one-cat
Bryan, China's massive treasury holdings are a major card they can play if they so choose during any trade war with them. One side of the coin says yields would fall as money is taken out of stocks and put into bonds - during normal times and stock bears. The other side of the coin says a stock bear born on the backs of a trade war with China will also bring fear into the bond market. All one can do is following the trends. Right now, both stock and bonds are in buy mode.
I love the new Progressive interest in UBI ... should speed things along nicely.
A triangle is also possible since the 2490 high, some degree of W4. FOMC would juice the final move?
Idea behind a 4th wave tri here. 11th hour disaster-powered budget deal this month provides the gas for the last leg up.
IV triangle would fit the 3 wave on top of 3 wave moves we've seen during this corrective churn. I do believe we gave a 5 wave targeting a top similar to yours, though a crash is landing anytime around here, so be ready to act when the bottom starts to fall out.
kevin,
given the crash is going to happen either this or next month are you positioned to take advantage of it? thx
Kevin in crash. Where u expecting spx to
Hmmmm......
While the world has grown used to The Pope sticking his papal nose in the world's business ("horrrific" borders, "grave risks" of libertarians, and the virtues of socialism); Britain's most senior clergyman, the Archbishop of Canterbury, has now decided that it is not enough to preach His word, but better to use his position of influence and adulation to discuss what's wrong with capitalism...
The British economic model needs fundamental reform.
It is no longer generating rising earnings for a majority of the population, and young people today are set to be poorer than their parents. Beneath its headlines figures, the economy is suffering from deep and longstanding weaknesses, which make it unfit to face the challenges of the 2020s.
Fundamental reform has happened before, in the 1940s and 1980s.
The persistent economic problems we have experienced since the 2008 global financial crash demand change of the same magnitude now. This should be guided by a new vision for the economy, where long-term prosperity is joined with justice for all.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-06/britains-top-priest-slams-rich-poor-divide-britains-broken-economy
https://www.facebook.com/technocracy4all
My trading plan for the crash. The trend remains up, thus I remain in QLD with the bulk of my money, while hedged with some TVIX and TZA. If the NASDAQ hits my 6729 target I plan to way out long, and be positioned net short via TZA and TVIX. When the trend turns negative - here, or after a kiss of 6729, or anywhere in between - I will be positioned 1x short via PSQ, as well as TZA and TVIX. The latter two hedges I plan to swing trade as the crash unfolds, being locked and loaded by the time the topping process puts us in the prime crash position. I expect the stock indexes to be cut in half by the time crash is in position to enjoy a big rally. That cut in half might be enough to end the bear - like 1987 and 2008 - or it may morph into a 3 year disaster thing - like 1929 and 2000. If its the latter, then I expect the NASDAQ to be down 80%-90% by the time we bottom for real. My bull/bear cycle indicator will tell which it is. Right now that says to expect the top to land in the next month or so.
Any smoke where you're at CG?
Oh yeah, Hugh. I work in downtown Seattle, where the sky looks like Beijing during the day.
Walking to the bus this morning, the moon was red. Ash all over my car last night, little white flecks everywhere.
They even cancelled my daughter's soccer practice the other night, on account of the lousy air quality.
It's nice and clear out out on the outer Olympic coast. We did our annual trip out to Ozette this past weekend. This smoke is from the Cascades for the most part.
The U.S.D index appears to have definitively taken out support.
Several years ago I drove through some THICK wildfire smoke in eastern Arizona. It was in the middle of the day, and I was able to stare directly at the sun, which was a dark burnt orange color. The inside of the car smelled like a campfire.
kevin, thanks for sharing your plan to prosper for the upcoming crash. i will look forward to adding to positions at a 50% discount. : ) if the markets drop that much i may have to invest on margin for the first time. although i'm not counting on it as we've been hearing crash predictions for the past 9 years : )
i do wish you well though!
not sure what's different this time but we'll soon see.
YEN breaking out, creating a reversal of the YEN carry trade, which is a precursor to any crash. Not sure if its purely technical as too many YEN shorts get creamed, or Japan bringing money home due to fears over NK.
Kevin. This is a huge development if it doesn't quickly "trap" the april highs.
And CG will be happy to know that the volatility indexes are showing some relative life.
Possible golden cross -- 50/200 DMA -- approaching on the $VIX soon, but we can still get through next week unscathed.
Already got the golden cross on the YEN:USD, which is the most important element of all, IMHO, as that is where the super leverage is on the backs of the most super accommodative central bank in the world. Of course, no action with NK this weekend and risk on could be in back en vogue, though big money over there is preparing for the worst as we enter Martin Armstrong's September 11 window of war opportunity.
IRMA nothingburger ... gap up /ES Sunday night.
paste the link into the addressbar to scroll down to view chart of ECB and JCB balance sheet expansion, which is why, T.Berry, the crash never happened - postponed - the past 5 years or so. And, no, the central banks cannot keep buying at this incredible pace, and what did all that massive stimulus give us? beyond asset bubbles that are sure to implode? A big fat nada.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/weekend-reading-the-real-vampire-squid/
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