After that, we have 1991 and 1792 waiting for us. And the mid-term future, as I see it. The crisis wave down starts with the March, 2018, FOMC meeting.
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| SPX path to 1000 |
Wednesday, September 13, 2017
First support would be the April lows
... at 2322 SPX, which allows for a .618 retrace back up to kiss the old channel, following the October New Moon.
After that, we have 1991 and 1792 waiting for us. And the mid-term future, as I see it. The crisis wave down starts with the March, 2018, FOMC meeting.
After that, we have 1991 and 1792 waiting for us. And the mid-term future, as I see it. The crisis wave down starts with the March, 2018, FOMC meeting.
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39 comments:
That was me reading Oswald Spengler's essay "The Return of the Caesars" in the February 1934 issue of "The American Mercury" on the 15X bus to Ballard tonight.
The bulls aren't going to like the summer of 2018.
UK stock market closed on the crash line today. A hard break of FTSE 7300 and the crash is on, with that index usually leading the US, and here we are.
Bullishness SOARED in the past week. We need to see a few weeks of this in a row. That's when yours truly will crawl back into the cave to hibernate.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
USD looks like its put a significant bottom in and set to soar.
Creeping ever closer to late 90's valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/09/07/market-remains-overvalued
Remember, Saudi Arabia is our friend.
We need the mom and pop crowd to go ALL IN!!! That wont happen overnight, but I think we're getting a little closer.
Hugh, I think mom and pop are already fully invested, mainly in bonds. The baby boomers - as a group - are past their prime in stock market speculation, and the next generation are still too young and poor. Even when baby boomers were crazy buying - and thus a tell that something bad was coming - the main factor was, and always is, the amount of margin debt employed in the stock market. THAT is what drives stock prices, and I'm talking big money betting on margin, not the little guy. The EURO and YEN carry trades are the giants in these regards, and are prone to havoc due to currency swings. Margin debt has never been higher, thus signaling the bubble is ready to pop.
long term investors win 100% of the time (providing they price average in) . yes, kevin i do think we'll see a bear market but on average they last 12-18 months providing excellent entries and adds to positions. bull markets on the other hand last much much longer. as i mentioned in the past my time horizon is 10+/ years from now and i've been in since 2011. no worries at all. bring that bear on! we've been waiting fir the big crash since 2012. lol . oh, that's right, it's next year. :) 2018, that'ss the ticket
T.Berry, the average return from now through the end of the next decade is expected to be 0%, with a 50% thru 80% loss thrown in to boot. If you are OK with making no money the next decade, and suffer such losses along the way, then your plan seems fine (especially if you have little skin in the game now compared to your future inflows.) Even then, adjusting positions based on trends will make you tons more money over the long term. But each to is own.
kevin,
not to doubt you but who is expecting zero? since it's inception back in 1928 the average annual return is just under 10% (adj for inflation about 7%). that time period includes alot of bear markets too. the key is price averaging in over long periods. the markets have gained back all bear losses usually withing 2 years or less. yes, there have been exceptions but in the long haul the stock market will always come back.
“Finally the Contrarian Warning from Small Investors” – September 10, 2017
https://wolfstreet.com/2017/09/10/small-investor-optimism-about-stocks-hits-record-of-jan-2000-just-before-dot-com-crash/
T.Berry, there are many academic studies on the subject of valuations and stock market returns. The link below is from Hussman. While his technical timing work is not very good, his academic work on the subject of returns versus valuations is exceptional. As for stock market returns since 1928, those are based on current nose-bleed levels of valuations and stock price movement. When the indexes down 50% such studies will show a zero return for 2 decades. When the indexes go down 80% to 90%, studies will show a zero return for four decades. So when we are there, and studies show a 2% return since 1900, and zero return since 1980s, why would people buy after such horrible performance? Of course, reality is that is exactly when one should be buying, and I'm sure Hussman's calculation will show absolutely great projections for the decade ahead. The key is VALUATIONS and price action. When price action is horrible - like after a prolonged bear market - one should be buying with both fist (as bull follows bear - always.) When price action has been great - like after a prolonged bull market - one should be playing very defensive (as bear follows bull - always.)
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc170911.htm
UK stocks closed below the 200 day yesterday, and is plummeting hard below the all important 7300 level today, setting up a potential crash attempt next week.
Kevin. That FTSE chart looks ominous.
RE: Kevin Wilde. Your highlight of the UK market is very important. As ever though, its the monthly close that matters.
Further, bears will need to see more than just the UK market settle bearish this Sept' or Oct. To counter the UK, there is Brazil.... breaking a new historic high.
Its currently rather mixed out there... but leaning on the bullish side.
Permabear, to counter your bullish observations we have the trannies, financial, RUT small caps, and MDY mid caps in the prime wave 2 position to slide into a wave 3 new bear crash wave. AMZN and GOOGL look like they want to do the 4 day pop, which could drive the NAZ closer to my 6729 target, though even then we are looking at a top and turn next week. Clearly UK stocks are leading, and it wouldn't take long - say a bad week for stocks - to get US indexes in the same dire predicament. Tom DeMark, too, is looking for a top today, or Monday, or Tuesday of next week. Me and my readers are adding to our TZA and TVIX hedges today.
Things are getting pretty hot here. Next week should be interesting, DJT, copper, breadth all stagnate/lower.
Could QQQ do what LIT, CQQQ, and ROBO have already done?
Bryan, you realize you just turned the market around and end the rally, right?
I'm watching to see signs that recent rally push was a start of an EW3 of some kind, versus it being a rally ending 5th.
Too early to tell which, though the next 2%+ one day wonder move should be the tell, and that is coming very soon.
another new all time record high on dow, s&p and naz. about the 4th time so far in september (worst month of the year for stocks--lol).
kevin, tom is running out of time :) he's probably never experienced a secular bull as strong as this one. feeling like 2508 is the new 1400 (or 1440, 1493, 1515 an so on....)
not sure who said they'd be shorting the dow at 23k, but be patient, the time is coming. been saying for the last 2.5 years, we'll never see a stronger/better bull market in our lifetime
How many divergances can we have at once? Super shaky short term.
Kevin. E-D in QQQ now?
Kevin. The Russell Micro Cap Index made a new ATH
I agree, Bryan, and something has gotta give, likely this week. Divergence can go one of two ways. One way makes T.Berry happy, the other wakes Christian up and we get more focused pretty chart patterns. A 5% move for the stock indexes this week wouldn't surprise me. FED had September down as QE taper moment. What the FED giveth the FED take-eth? Lots on money to be made this year, me thinks, and this week should the question of our larger fate.
free beer tomorrow
kevin,
just picked up some tvix @ 12.49 and some tza @ 15.25 hope to be thanking you soon :)
just about 2.5% more till dow jones 23,000.
kevin, were you the one that mentioned someone you follow said if dow jones hits 23,000 its going to 40,000? thanks,
T.Berry, Martin Armstrong has had 23,000 as a critical target for years. The Dow has to smash through that, then it's on its way to 40,000. Martin sees a collapse over in Europe banking system - starting next year - as the catalyst that drives money away from government bonds into safer private assets, such as Dow blue chip stocks. I personally find that hard to believe that a collapse of the European banking system, and loss of faith in government, will result in stocks doing well. 23,000 is likely a very tough nut to break, and we may face a fake out dive he calls a slingshot, to provide the fuel for an eventual smash through 23,000, as everyone gets super bearish during the dive. That would fit the 1998 and even 1987 pattern, where we crashed as a prelude to even higher highs. I expect stocks to move very fast very hard once the FED is out the way, given the current set-up. I believe one can make many fortunes following the explosive trends going forward, and that is very much my plan.
Things are getting ugly.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8x8gaa/pepe-the-frogs-creator-lawsuits-dmca-matt-furie-alt-right
There goes apple...pop
LOLZ
A perversion of sector hot potato that, somehow, keeps this thing glued. And it is all currency driven.
Transports finished mighty strong, and XLF held up quite well too. Small caps and retail took a hit. Hmm. Maybe another 2-3% drop to shake off the fair weather bulls? Crude is looking like a coiled spring. A quick pop in crude usually takes the market down a notch or two.
LOL!
https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/09/20/warren-buffett-says-the-dow-is-going-over-million/
well that's it! top number 234 since 2012 is in! lol.
free beer tomorrow lol
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