Saturday, June 24, 2017

So where are we now in the count?

We want to see more pullback in the end of Q2, finding support at the 2400 level on the S&P 500.

a rare U-Haul camper, Crown Hill, Seattle, WA

From there, we hit the next Bradley turn for the final (?) 5th wave up.  Along the way we want to see continued market optimism, with divergences in breadth and $VIX if we can manage it.  A few more Hindenburg Omen days would add to the drama, as well.

SPX 60D E-D count

This next chart is based on various support trendlines and their co-incidence with 2017 Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meetings ... let's call it "policy pinball".



Christian Gustafson said...

The dives on the 2nd chart have identical slope to the sell-off at the end of 2015, into early 2016.

Figure the same sort of sell-off, just longer, deeper, and more severe.

It's what's for dinner.

Kevin Wilde said...

My research of major bears and crashes is my target for the crash wave would be 1501, and 1756 for the rebound, though all others match your numbers near perfectly.

Bryan Franco said...

Shape and form look just right for the top. We are approaching no-mans land when it comes to how low stock-stock and sector-sector correlations have become. The scale and magnitude of this bifurcation leads the Market - and, this time around - right to where u have the top. To confirm, we will want to see these correlations then rise to over 90% on the way down.

Christian Gustafson said...

But what did you guys think of that badass fiberglass camper?

Anonymous said...

That camper rocks. I would prefer aluminum though.

Bryan Franco said...

I will buy a fiberglass camper if sector-sector correlations go from sub-50% to greater than 90% by the end of August (using a daily, 21 trading day lookback).