Friday, December 9, 2016

The best the bears can hope for ...

... would be a draw down into FOMC -- obvious rate hike -- and massive short-squeeze to finish the year.

SPX
But such a move would complete 5 waves of a megaphone C.

9 comments:

christiangustafson said...

Snowing hard in the Seattle.

That strong RSI on this blow-off rally must be respected.

Bryan Franco said...

Requires a new intermediate term high after whatever decline we have. Essentially in the spirit of what you already drawn.

T.Berry said...

revising dji 20,000 target to by year end (from original memorial day then easter) santa is coming . revise 2017 target to dji 23,000.

this bull only getting stronger. spend don spend. lol

christiangustafson said...

I'm guessing as to the market psychology for a current (very expected) rate hike, that shorts may pile on to their collective doom.

^IRX crossed the 50 bps level this morning. Maybe it's up to the early February FOMC to bring the shock and awe.

We just keep kickin' that can. 52bps and climbing ...

Trading Sunset said...

CG. I can understand the count/outlook, and there is a fib' time turn of Feb.

However, what about copper or the breakout in financials, such as BAC?

Copper fell for 5yrs. That downward trend has concluded. It can be expected to see copper rally for some considerable time to come.

Same for financials. BAC stuck under the $18 threshold for 8 years. Its only just begun a grand up wave.
--

I wonder what you'll say if we're trading sp'3K with Dow 26k in late 2017/early 2018.

Neither do you ever mention other world markets. They offer clues as to where the US is headed.

christiangustafson said...

Copper is at long-term resistance.

Anonymous said...

Caldero doubling down on the long term bull. Declares Trump will lead us into the next Golden Age.

Anonymous said...

"This is a super dangerous place to be wrong, no matter what happens." I agree. It's interesting that Caldero was calling for a trip down to 1120 a short time ago. He said the only thing that would change his mind would be new highs. I personally don't understand how the new highs have officially taken a bearish scenario off the table. In the short run, I don't plan on changing my strategy of looking for small/low risk trading opportunities. My strategy has lagged the market YTD. I'm up about 6% vs. 10+, but I did this with putting a VERY small amount of money at risk.

Bryan Franco said...

HJ. That is my approach. Look like goats now, but the process matches the market over long term, and kills it on a risk adjusted basis... And the latter is the more important metric because, well, you never know...