Wednesday, December 14, 2016

No shorting until Christmas

Well, just after Christmas.  FOMC excitement today was just part of a 4th wave retrace, which has room to run into this Friday.

C wave channel has us rolling over right at the 2300 mark on the SPX when we return from the Christmas break.  Bonuses will be secured, so what will be the point of lingering a moment longer in the bourse?

We may have a President Trump formally set by then, but his plans for massive fiscal stimulus may be DOA.  And then how in the world will we create fresh new debt and credit-money to keep the great ponzi going?

Merry Christmas!

SPX final ABC to new highs


Christian Gustafson said...

Hang in there, you poor weary bears. Keep the weasels out of your chicken house.

T.Berry said...

dont expect we'll ever see s&p breach the don low (2030). buy the weakness if you're in for the long haul. poor bears for sure cg! should get poorer lol

see s&P targets continue moving up through '17 : ) 2300, 2400 , 2500?????

Permabear Doomster said...

CG, most other world markets are pushing upward. A fair few all indirectly support the notion of Dow 25/26k within 9-18mths.

Last Dec' saw the month end bearish. This year.... we'll soon find out.

CG, do you not consider the possible scenario where Trump can inspire a new bull market/economic growth phase?

Christian Gustafson said...

Where will the inflation and growth come from, Doomie?

A new round of QE ain't happening, and now it sounds like Congress is born-again as deficit hawks. After all, we can't leave all this crazy debt for future generations now, can we?

Globalism was the last act of the inflationary era, literally exporting and expanding credit across the entire globe! And now our next President wants to call the whole thing off.

Deflation and the bad parts of the 4th Turning are just about here.

Anonymous said...

"Deflation and the bad parts of the 4th Turning are just about here" Caldero had a weekend post about the 4th turning. Unless I missed it, he seems to think the crises phase is over. I don't know too much about the subject, but thought each phase lasted 20+ years, before the turn was complete. I think I'm most puzzled by people who are still bullish on real estate. At minimum we will see a moderate correction there.

Anonymous said...

BTW, I absolutely think debt will be left for future generations.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Just confirmed, Caldero indeed believes the crisis phase it over.

T.Berry said...

"Dow 25/26k within 9-18mths."

thought i was bullish. that target if fine here : )

couldnt understand over 2 yrs ago why anyone would short this bull...have a good hunch the guy that wrote dow 36000 is going to have the last laugh. '

you need to come over to this side hugh!

T.Berry said...

as for qe, market doens't need it. fed proved almost a year ago by stopping qe and we're up 12% and just hit 17 new levels never seen before in about a month. market is going to continue to rise with or without qe. plus we've had 2 rate hikes . don't mess with this bull : )

TSE said...

The (current) social contract isn't driven by "numbers", it's dependent upon cheap oil with a high EROEI; which has been falling, precipitiously.

It will continue, until it can't - and then.... nothing else matters. Except your immediate needs and the will to survive/continue.

But we aren't there yet - and the paper market will continue to melt upwards.

It is when the electric goes out that the nightmare begins as the forgotten plagues and epedimics of the past overwhelm even the best prepared "PREPPER".

Live for today and buy the dip - for we stand at:

TSE said...

HJ sez: :BTW, I absolutely think debt will be left for future generations".

The Eskimos had a solution.

In the past some nomadic tribes of Native Americans and Eskimos, such as the Shoshone (Steward) and the Ahtna (De Laguna and McClellan), motivated by the need to move in pursuit of food and other necessities, felt the need to abandon the elderly—a practice known as senicide. Derek Humphry, founder of the Hemlock Society, believes that social and economic necessity will force modern societies in the same direction. He writes, "One must look at the realities of the increasing cost of health care in an aging society, because in the final analysis, economics, not the quest for broadened individual liberties or increased autonomy, will drive assisted suicide to the plateau of acceptable practice." Pietr Admiraal, one of foremost Dutch practitioners of euthanasia, believes that by 2020 Europe may resort to euthanasia to deal with a large population of elderly people. Admiraal says he is glad he will not be alive to see it, but he remains a strong advocate of euthanasia (Hendin).

Read more: Euthanasia and Senicide - Historical Background - Aging, Nursing, Physician, Social, Life, and Haeckel - JRank Articles

Consider Senicide as retroactive abortion.

Problem solved.

Logan's Run:

Anonymous said...

TSE, I agree about assisted suicide. It will become common as the baby boomers age, in fact I think they will demand it. Of course in true baby boomer fashion, they were not the least bit concerned about it when their parents were old and sick. Evangelical Christian's/Catholics are not too keen on the idea, to which I say, DON'T PARTICIPATE! If I'm not mistaken the Catholic Church was the main obstacle, for legalizing assisted suicide in Oregon. I personally do not plan on becoming elderly. Every time I see a broken down old man, I'm reminded of how much I want no part of that. This is a taboo subject, only because humans remain superstitious creatures to this very day. While I think assisted suicide should be a legal option for anyone suffering from a terminal illness, including the terminal illness of being old, I'm not sure that would solve our debt problem.

Permabear Doomster said...

re: Where will the inflation and growth come from, Doomie?

The global economy will continue to grow... not least because of huge advances in technology, especially in terms energy production/efficiency.

The inflation? Its out there, or haven't you been shopping lately, whether for bread, a car, or a new home?

Go look at the CRB. It saw a multi-year floor in Jan/Feb. Its now secured a higher low, and will soon be in the 200s.

All the bulls need to do is settle the year above the monthly 10MA... currently @ 2141, and that looks comfortably easy.

Anonymous said...

Inflation has been VERY low for 2015/16. We are probably headed back to a more normal rate in 2017, but it will not be severe.

TSE said...

HJ sez: "While I think assisted suicide should be a legal option for anyone suffering from a terminal illness, including the terminal illness of being old,"


HJ sez: "I'm not sure that would solve our debt problem."

Agreed - although removing the unproductive cost centers (Retirees drawing a paycheck) - which is what Industrial civilization and "moderm money practices" have created, would restore some balance. Of course, getting rid of a system whose lending practices creates debt with future increases (interest) which aren't created would solve the debt conundrum.

As for "people" deliberately overpopulating such a beautiful Planet and reproducing with wild abandon, resulting in the destruction of the environment and systems which support them - it is an unpardonable sin.

"The destruction of the natural world is not the result of global capitalism, industrialisation, “Western civilisation” or any flaw in human institutions. It is a consequence of the evolutionary success of an exceptionally rapacious primate. Throughout all of history and prehistory, human advance has coincided with ecological devastation." — John Gray, STRAW DOGS

Of course that "exceptionally rapacious primate" is differentated from true primates by having only 23 chromosomes (vs. 24 for TRUE Earth primates) and the 2/3 pairs (in Humans) seem to have been fused.

Anonymous said...

"Of course that "exceptionally rapacious primate" is differentated from true primates by having only 23 chromosomes (vs. 24 for TRUE Earth primates) and the 2/3 pairs (in Humans) seem to have been fused." I don't buy into the "divine intervention" theory of human history, alien/god or otherwise. We are products of nature, whether we like it or not. We are an anomoly for sure. When people point to the amazing technological development of humans, I point out the fact that actually very few groups have contributed to this, with the rest just along for the ride. Native Americans left to their own devices probably would not have invented the jet engine. Yet again, a very taboo subject. I'm not saying that inventing jet engines is "superior," it may turn out the Native American nature worship wasn't so dumb after all. What difference will it make if we can fly from one continent to another, if there are no continents! All of the theories about the origin of man, in relation to nature/universe are just attempts to explain mans divided nature. Whether it's The Fall of Man, Prometheus, aliens etc. The reality is likely much more mundane, as most truths are. Here is a part of Peter Zapffe's Last Messiah. It's probably my favorite read about this subject.

"Whatever happened? A breach in the very unity of life, a biological paradox, an abomination, an absurdity, an exaggeration of disastrous nature. Life had overshot its target, blowing itself apart. A species had been armed too heavily – by spirit made almighty without, but equally a menace to its own well-being. Its weapon was like a sword without hilt or plate, a two-edged blade cleaving everything; but he who is to wield it must grasp the blade and turn the one edge toward himself.

Despite his new eyes, man was still rooted in matter, his soul spun into it and subordinated to its blind laws. And yet he could see matter as a stranger, compare himself to all phenomena, see through and locate his vital processes. He comes to nature as an unbidden guest, in vain extending his arms to beg conciliation with his maker: Nature answers no more, it performed a miracle with man, but later did not know him. He has lost his right of residence in the universe, has eaten from the Tree of Knowledge and been expelled from Paradise. He is mighty in the near world, but curses his might as purchased with his harmony of soul, his innocence, his inner peace in life’s embrace."

TSE said...

HJ Sez: "We are products of nature":

Define "nature" and garner understanding.

Peter Zapffe, in His "Last Messiah" describes a Slave without a Master.

"The current phase of life’s chronic fever is particularly tainted by this circumstance. The absence of naturally (biologically) based spiritual activity shows up, for example, in the pervasive recourse to distraction (entertainment, sport, radio – ‘the rhythm of the times’). Terms for anchoring are not as favourable – all the inherited, collective systems of anchorings are punctured by criticism, and anxiety, disgust, confusion, despair leak in through the rifts (‘corpses in the cargo.’) Communism and psychoanalysis, however incommensurable otherwise, both attempt (as Communism has also a spiritual reflection) by novel means to vary the old escape anew; applying, respectively, violence and guile to make humans biologically fit by ensnaring their critical surplus of cognition. The idea, in either case, is uncannily logical. But again, it cannot yield a final solution. Though a deliberate degeneration to a more viable nadir may certainly save the species in the short run, it will by its nature be unable to find peace in such resignation, or indeed find any peace at all."

Because as Lloyd Pye pointed out - we are outside of Nature - we DO NOT FIT - hence peace alludes us forever - as also noted by Peter Zapffe.

"And humans will persist in dreaming of salvation and affirmation and a new Messiah. Yet when many saviours have been nailed to trees and stoned on the city squares, then the last Messiah shall come."

And we await that Messiah to save us from the Debt Hell humans have created.

Anonymous said...

Zapffe wrote this before nuclear weapons. He also witnessed both World Wars, which I'm sure helped cement his philosophy. WWII saw the state replace the church as the primary anchoring mechanism.