It all keys off the FOMC Minutes released November 18th, and a promise to hike in December. The market will front-run the move all the way to support from the 2009 lows trendline, forcing the Fed to kick the can again. Once we are through the EOY bounce, the market will collapse.
When all the shorts are driven from the field (on marginal new highs), there will be no buyers left in this market. Hedge funds and large financials blew that SKEW number out in the September-October cycle of this, so they are unlikely to hedge now until it is too late.
|SPX rally into FOMC Minutes release 11/18|