The tape counts reasonably well on the S&P 500, so I'd like to see us back up at 2134 by August opex this Friday. The bottom is there, so is the new channel (for now).
Here is the initial breakdown to support at 1820. Extrapolating the 50 and 200 looks like the death-cross on the SPX arrives around the start of September. Super!
|SPX 08-14 1Y|
And of course the VIX forms a decent mirror-image of the SPX, grinding lower in its own ending-diagonal. A sub-10 VIX in two weeks would be a gift from God for market skeptics and aspiring index shorts. I do think the next GDP print on 8/27 will be very important.
|VIX 08-14 1Y|
Yes, that's a 1-2 move I'm expecting on the VIX. The "W3" from that should be pretty amazing.
Hang in there. Respect reversal candles like the hammer this week. Be patient, stay in school, and don't smoke crack -- it's a ghetto drug. (With election season warming up, it's time to see the fine "Bob Roberts" movie again soon.)