Saturday, July 25, 2015

And on the Seventh Day, Karl wept ...

Karl Denninger's doomed BBRY continues to make new 52-week lows -- it's one of the stocks contributing to the three (at last count) Hindenburg Omen days we had this week, putting in sharp new lows while the momo tech stocks fly.

BBRY did touch its lower Bollinger on Friday, so it's due for a bounce, maybe another test of the $8 level before it continues its quest to worthlessness.  Remember that BBRY has only entertainment value for us in Deflation Land, it's a proxy for laughing at that consummate douchebag in the Florida who is shutting down his blog, gee, one of these days.

These memes are addictive once you get started.

Charts, it's do or die for anything bullish now.  My count still wants to see one more high, preferably in a couple of weeks around 2150-2156.  FOMC the big mover this upcoming week.

After another high, then we want to see the ending-diagonal finally break down, hard and fast.  UVXY ought to be at least a triple on this move if properly timed.

SPX 07-24 daily

This all leads, of course, to a fight over the 1820 SPX level that resolves itself as it should, with a complete meltdown of the equity markets and return to the trendline between the 2002 and 2009 lows.  These are the FAS-157 chickens coming home to roost.



sooner said...

Did he ever say that he actually ever bought any bbry?

Christian Gustafson said...

He does not state a position, just repeats innuendo like how shorts are going to be squeezed or that long-term holders are going to make out like bandits when we get that "golden cross" on the charts.

He's not honest enough with his readers to state that he even has a position.

All posts on TF are moderated before they post to the site. Why it's even up at all, after multiple cycles of his agonizing about hanging it all up, to the pleas of the sycophants, I don't know. The sycophants on that board are about of the FreeRepublic level, except that they all cower in fear of Karl, lest any perceived slight on their part bring out the dreaded banhammer.

Like I said, BBRY is a proxy for LOLing poor sad old Baby Boomer Karl.

sooner said...

That's what I thought. I did not remember him ever stating his position. After the great purge which caught norseman (arguably one of the best traders on the site) the ban hammer went off the scale.

I'm still learning and certainly do not feel comfortable posting any technical arguments, but I agree 100% with you on bbry. It's a train wreck in slow motion.

His hatred for Apple is pretty humorous too. He does not get pop culture.

Permabear Doomster said...

Hey CG.

Well, regardless of whether the market has one more lunge higher into August... we do look set for some fierce downside action from mid August onward... into early Oct.

A break of the big 2K threshold looks a given... and that should open the door to 1950/00. The low 1800s will be difficult.. not least if any of the Fed officials start rumouring QE4 (as they did last October).

I'll have to do a post on it this week, but after the break this autumn... if the market can't regain the monthly 10MA, 2-4 months later... then its over... and you'll be leading the market lower to hell. I'll be glad to follow.

Re: Denniger. I still like his economic reports..they remain good. The BBRY nonsense though.. and endless threats of blog-closing... its way past tedious. I never posted on his board, but I'm somewhat aware of 'the purge'.

Have a good week!

Anonymous said...

Regional question for CG. My wife and I are thinking about visiting the San Juan Islands at some point. Do you have any local/insider tips?

Bryan Franco said...

Pounding the table at HT Trading long EWJ versus most major equity index ETFs...

Christian Gustafson said...

Reverend, I've only made a couple of trips into the San Juans and the top of Mt. Constitution. Of course it's fantastic out there.

My only advice is to arrive at least an hour early for the ferry. I've been the Last Car On before, with my ride on the edge of the boat, parking brake set and blocks under the wheels.

Christian Gustafson said...

McHugh had called a "failed 5th" top o' the 2009 rally in his newsletter.

I'll be very interested to see what he has to say tonight.

c of 5, anyone?

/me looking to short in a week.

D said...

If you like deflation and crashes, there are liquidity crises and market crashes every weekend. You just have to look in the right place.

There are better ways to find books and other nice lifestyle accoutrements.

As far as books go, some good books usually means there are other good books. Someone with a good personal library typically has some other things figured out in life and will have other nice things also. The stemware appears to be Baccarat Massena. Old Baccarat crystal was not signed, so that might be pretty good stuff to take a peek at while exploring for books.

Smoke principle: Where there is smoke, look for fire.

Don't be the guy that buys from the local bookstore. Be the guy that sells your surplus to them.

As with all things, start slow and remember that there will be no shortage of estates to liquidate over the next few decades. Buy dear, sell cheap.

In the PNW, it would also be worthwhile to familiarize yourself with huanghuali and zitan.

Christian Gustafson said...

Is that a cup-and-handle pattern on the /ES?

Anonymous said...

Certainly looks like it. Within a few weeks EVERYONE will be bullish again. That's when the real fun begins. Thanks for the ferry tip BTW.

Christian Gustafson said...

I got your back, Reverend.

Also, don't move here.


Anonymous said...

Ha, I don't plan on moving there. My wife and I are already on the coast in NorCal. WA is beautiful, but I'm afraid it suffers from the same problem Cali does. We plan on taking our generous Bay Area tech earnings and moving somewhere with a few less fruits and nuts. Maybe northern AZ.

Bryan Franco said...

Our latest from HT Trading. Long Philip Morris, short American Express. Apparently, we don't take American Express either.

Bryan Franco said...

Sorry, use this perma-link:

Christian Gustafson said...

We're learning now that most of the smog that crosses the Pacific is not from Chinese coal-fired power plants.

It's actually from all the countless packs of Marlboro reds they're furiously burning through, as they gamble on stocks in their fraudulent companies.

Sometimes you'd think the British brought them shiploads of Lucky Strikes.

Anonymous said...

Few like to discuss it, but tobacco stocks are some the best investments one can make. I've never really understood the qualms some have when it comes to them. If I remember right, Bernanke only owned one stock prior to becoming Fed chair and it was Altria Group.