|SPX 02-09 60D|
I still think that any Elliott count considering 2093 as the final high and the start of a "wave 1" impulse down is foolish and defective. The awful blogger Daneric continues to push this count, because his analysis is lazy and sloppy and ultimately deceptive and fatal to his readers. He may actually be some sort of market shill selling puts to the permabears, I dunno. How are those SPY 195 puts working out for you guys, huh? Wave 3 down any day now ...
Stretching the larger 3PDH model out a bit across 2015, with a final low at our point #10 target at 1074 SPX in November, which works on so many levels. The specific turns in this chart are mostly Bradley turn dates based on the classic model. The largest leg, the crash leg back to 1074 SPX, lands squarely in the Fall crash season.
|SPX 02-09 3PDH model|
Looking for a final high around February opex. Gotta eat the last of the puts and run the VIX down a bit more.
One more thing. Speculating about when the Fed will start hiking rates (June FOMC?), has us inevitably looking at the 13-week T-bill for any clues. The Fed follows the market, right?
If we look at a very long-term Yahoo! chart of ^IRX, we see that it has been flatlined throughout the whole ZIRP experiment, but that RSI has been very slowly building over time. So what will happen if the RSI for ^IRX breaks out over .5? Will this see a breakout spike in short-term rates, and a commensurate move by our Fed masters? I think so.
|13-week Treasury Bill|