Friday, January 2, 2015

Is this all leading up to a top into the ECB meeting late this month?

Market's selling off a little, not really impulsive (yet), but the elephant in the room is the ECB decision due late this month.  Eurobonds probably let the game run a while longer, so we can't fall apart until we know for sure we won't see them.

The 12/26 Bradley turn looks like a minor top in this cycle, but we never did tag the upper Bollinger Band on the daily SPX -- something we did do in the 2000 and 2007 tops.  On 12/31, however, the upper Bollinger finally stopped rising and has started to come in.  That would set us up for a possible touch of it late this month into the ECB announcement.

The January FOMC meeting?  No news expected here, no rate hike until April at the earliest.  But standing pat will be pretty bearish if the ECB does not take up the liquidity baton.

Wishing you a Happy New Year.  There are some interesting developments in Seattle silly echo bubble real estate.  I'll be walking a lot more in 2015 and will photoblog these horrors extensively.


SPX wedge/diagonal into January ECB meeting


Christian Gustafson said...

With this chart, if the move on SPX from 1972 to 2093 is (iii), 121 handles, we retraced about .372 of this at the 2048 level this morning -- right in the strike-zone for a wave (iv) move here.

Looking ahead, we also have a New Moon on 1/20, the Tuesday after the January opex and the MLK holiday.

Fits into the rough window with the ECB meeting, FOMC soon after, and a timeline where we could tag that important upper Bollinger.

Bicycle said...

+1 I like this chart.

Pump price $1.72 here and falling rapidly. An interesting phenomenon over the holidays, lots of people beaming about the low gas price but pissed that they would fill up and then see much lower prices within a day.

Expectation of ever lower pricing and increased value of dollar... we know what that means right?

Interestingly, none of the media is talking about the fact that diesel fuel is now totally out of whack with gasoline, and is still more than 50% more expensive than regular unleaded at the pump...

Permabear Doomster said...

Now I'm supposed to be worried about the Diesel disaparity... really?