Friday, January 2, 2015

Is this all leading up to a top into the ECB meeting late this month?

Market's selling off a little, not really impulsive (yet), but the elephant in the room is the ECB decision due late this month.  Eurobonds probably let the game run a while longer, so we can't fall apart until we know for sure we won't see them.

The 12/26 Bradley turn looks like a minor top in this cycle, but we never did tag the upper Bollinger Band on the daily SPX -- something we did do in the 2000 and 2007 tops.  On 12/31, however, the upper Bollinger finally stopped rising and has started to come in.  That would set us up for a possible touch of it late this month into the ECB announcement.

The January FOMC meeting?  No news expected here, no rate hike until April at the earliest.  But standing pat will be pretty bearish if the ECB does not take up the liquidity baton.

Wishing you a Happy New Year.  There are some interesting developments in Seattle silly echo bubble real estate.  I'll be walking a lot more in 2015 and will photoblog these horrors extensively.

This?

SPX wedge/diagonal into January ECB meeting

2 comments:

christiangustafson said...

With this chart, if the move on SPX from 1972 to 2093 is (iii), 121 handles, we retraced about .372 of this at the 2048 level this morning -- right in the strike-zone for a wave (iv) move here.

Looking ahead, we also have a New Moon on 1/20, the Tuesday after the January opex and the MLK holiday.

Fits into the rough window with the ECB meeting, FOMC soon after, and a timeline where we could tag that important upper Bollinger.

Trading Sunset said...

Now I'm supposed to be worried about the Diesel disaparity... really?
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