Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Charts 01-14: .382 retrace today

We bottomed right at the .382 retrace of the rally from the low of 1820 SPX up to 2093, as good a place as any to mark "wave 4" and be done with it at last.  I hate fours.


The upper daily SPX Bollinger continues to dribble off a point or two each day, and is closing in on the upper trendline of the rally count since 1737 SPX.  I relabeled this count as a series of triplets, particularly obvious in the "wave 3" up from 1820.

SPX 01-14

My SPY calls made it back into the green by close today; please include them in your prayers.


Christian Gustafson said...

Our hearty congratulations go out tonight to a Mr. Karl S. Denninger, of Niceville, Florida, for his investment acumen regarding the beaten-down tech stock, BBRY.

BBRY popped nearly 30% today on -- oh wait, never mind.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey, someone from Shelton, WA, just visited the blog. How cool is that? Welcome!

ruff times said...

Hey...Custer,WA has been lurking for a year now. Live the blog

Bicycle said...

Er.... wow. If we're actually in 5 now, it's going to be a heck of a 5... my goodness. So many hijinks in the after-hours.

Bicycle said...

So it seems conventional wisdom now that the ECB is going to do something truly insane with regards to QE.

Did the crude collapse give them the room to do such a thing?

Was the crude collapse precipitated precisely to give the ECB room to undertake massive QE?

Is China starved for Euros? Did China see crazy fall off in European demand in Q4?

By the way, did everyone see the thing last night where Putin was having Gazprom cut natural gas deliveries to 6 countries in the Europe? Shouldn't we think he has KGB in the ECB and knows what's coming too? It is related, for sure.

These dumb ass, are going to ignite a huge war.

Bicycle said...

And if we really blow chunks later today and tomorrow I have to wonder if yesterday wasn't 4, and instead we really did get a super early 5th failure and won't touch the top bollinger.

Christian Gustafson said...

The Swiss have left us in wave 4 purgatory, possibly forever and ever.

While it is clear that the tape since the late-December Bradley turn is not impulsive, at the moment we are looking for a spark for the expected wave 5.

UVXY is as bored of this as we are.

Well, someone needs to beat on the VIX or USD-JPY or Meredith Whitney or something else useful here.

Bicycle said...

Total Energy Production for Switzerland, Bear Ascending Broadening Wedges.

Christian Gustafson said...

The SPX close left us sitting right on the lower daily Bollinger Band. Add that to the long list of reasons why a rally is overdue.

Yes, Bicycle, some sort of failure at this point on this messy chart would be weird and unfortunate.

Deflation and fear are out there. The 10Y T yield closed about a dime lower than it did when it crashed back in October.

Phat Repat said...

There is only one way to play this volatility and that is to let others take the risk. Sure, the returns aren't that great, but it is what it is. I'll accept 4% for this month.

Other than that, watching, waiting for next run (and hopefully soon; though hope ain't an investment strategy ;).