Monday, October 6, 2014

Charts 10-06: Let's look at a couple of short-term cycles

Disappointed Deflation Land readers, hungry for blood in the street and on the indices (instead of the clearly corrective tape from the last high), should at least be grateful that I don't foist anemic wave counts like this on them.

Sorry, Daneric, but that count is strictly from hunger, and deceptive since you don't draw that BROKEN topline from 2019 SPX.  And I'm sad to see that Daneric is counting the Wilshire 5000 lame index again, just sad.

I won't do that to my audience, neither of you out there, I respect your intelligence.  Instead I will labor to find something fresh even in these tedious corrective charts.  We'll try a short-term time cycle or two.  What this one suggests for me is that there is no rush to try any more speculative longs of any magnitude until the FOMC minutes come out at 2:00 pm EDT Wednesday.

SPX 10-06

9 comments:

Phat Repat said...

Still nothing actionable at this point. Current numbers for long/short positions are: sell below confirmation of 1945.37 and buy above confirmation of 1977.64.

Not providing stops as I don't believe we will have clear direction until the ridiculous charade of FOMC is completed tomorrow. ;-)

christiangustafson said...

Agreed, time for a book thread tonight! LOL

Phat Repat said...

Great; always looking for more reading material. :)

Phat Repat said...

Wow, this is some good stuff. A gap down, then this sell off, followed by another likely gap down tomorrow (bear trap) and then the potential euphoria of the FOMC tomorrow afternoon. Hmmm... They're not that predictable, are they? ;-)

christiangustafson said...

1904 SPX this week looks reasonable once again. Look at UVXY capturing the fear and tension of this moment -- can you believe that just yesterday she had a 24-handle?

I will be in total awe if the bulls can dig out of this hole & get us a new ATH. Extreme danger ...

Phat Repat said...

True, the numbers don't lie. ;-) Here is what I have based on where we are now: Short below 1944.80 with a stop at 1964.89. T1 of 1894.47, T2 of 1886.88.

I am short as of now and would likely take profits near T1 +/- 10 points. Stop loss will change as prices come in tomorrow.

christiangustafson said...

This is back on?

Bryan Franco said...

No more than 20% down before new ATH. If we sustain trade below 1905-ish, I am playing for low 1700s

Trading Sunset said...

CG re: I will be in total awe if the bulls can dig out of this hole & get us a new ATH. Extreme danger ...
--


Yes...and I think many are losing sight of the bigger monthly cycles. R2K is 100% BROKEN. Dow is negative MACD cycle, rest of the indexes will follow in November, even if prices remain flat.

The original outlook is back ON... as I'll note over and over again across the next few weeks.. .the only issue is whether we get stuck in the next up wave.. or just keep rising.

Considering those monthly charts... I'm looking for sp'1780/60 before year end.
-

yours.... sickly (but not Ebola)