Thursday, September 25, 2014

... which would put us in a wave 3 down

Something like this?  This sets us up for -- at long last! -- a visit to the 200 DMA SPX in  two weeks.  The market, she's looking kinda shaky these days.

SPX 09-25 a.m.

Note the alternation on the proposed 2-4 waves -- a sharp wave 2 back up, compared to a meandering, lazy 4 late next week.

I've got a rare shore leave for an overnight hike this weekend, so I'll be out enjoying the larches on the Devil's Dome loop trail in the Pasayten Wilderness. 


Bicycle said...

Holy hell.... that just blew through the bottom of my rising wedge. This might be it!!!!

pb said...

"Shore Leave" ? Christian are you
in the navy?

Christian Gustafson said...

Worse. Married!

Permabear Doomster said...

...With the break of sp'1978...the 'doomer' scenarios can be brought out proudly now ;)

I like those chart levels and targets...looks very viable.

I will want to see a few more bigger technical issues achieved... namely..

1. VIX weekly close >17.50
2. VIX >22 (possible if sp'1920/00)
3. Another red weekly index 'rainbow' candle next week..(now almost a certainly).

Closing September on a low would also really help the grander bearish outlook, and setup early October for a further down move..before the 'stupid bounce'...somewhere to 1970/90....

If that is the case... the subsequent wave would be a least to 1780/60.

Fib charts say '1650'., but now...that is beyond the stuff of dreams.

Have a good Friday CG

T.Berry said...

am a buyer at 200dma or a bit above in case it doesn't hit. last time was 2 years ago.

Christian Gustafson said...

Me, too, Mr. Berry, I'll buy that dip with you -- but only for a play into the following week, to kissback another channel (SPX 1966?)

I'll post that chart this morning. Working on a cup of coffee now.

Bicycle said...

Hey Christian, what do you think about this?

The greatest possible screw job to both bears and bulls, it gives us the promise of one more new high on the Dow around 17400 level.