Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Is this our long-lost 5th wave?

We have been waiting patiently for the complement to the 40-handle minor W1 move from 1904 to 1944 on the SPX, which took place over about 1.5 days.

This morning looks impulsive, and a similar W5 here would time well for a new high right into tomorrow's FOMC.  The overall shape up here is a classic broadening-top (megaphone).

After that?  The 200 DMA on the SPX lines up nicely with an early-October cycle-low (Bradley, Full Moon etc) turn.

GLTA you crazy kids.

SPX 09-16 a.m.


Bicycle said...

We know that the Dow fell out of a nice bearish rising wedge at the end of July.

But what is forming now?

Will this Bullish Ascending Triangle hold?

Or will it morph into another Rising Wedge?

See chart at canyoupicturewhatwillbe...

Bicycle said...

I suspect we will find out today, but the ascending triangle is holding as of this morning.

That will be a nice trap laid for the bulls if Yellen just barely spikes it over current levels and turns this into a rising wedge.

If that ascending triangle is valid though, that means it's going to get real ugly for the bears, right quick. Like potentially Dow 18000 ugly...

Bicycle said...

Based on the fact we have not yet confirmed the larger rising wedge from 2009... I say this turns into another rising wedge, and the ascending triangle is invalid.

Either way... not a great day to short... but if we pop, just a little bit, we get another rising wedge on the Dow and potentially the short opportunity of a life time...

Come on goldilocks... do your thing